The electric fast-track for emerging markets

The report examines the 'electrotech fast-track' for 74 Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) nations, arguing that rapid cost declines in solar, batteries, and electric end-use technologies allow these countries to bypass the 'fossil detour'. It highlights that 46% of CVF nations, by electricity demand, have already surpassed the US in solar penetration. The document details how solar is now less capital-intensive than fossil fuels and how decentralized solar-battery systems are becoming cheaper than grid extension for remote areas. It further argues that transitioning to electrotech reduces the $155 billion annual fossil fuel import drain and leverages CVF nations' strategic assets in critical minerals and manufacturing to gain geopolitical influence.

• A significant number of Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF) nations are already adopting solar and electric technologies at rates exceeding the United States. Specifically, 46% of CVF nations, measured by electricity demand, have overtaken the US in solar penetration, and approximately 51% have surpassed the US in economy-wide electrification.
• Official statistics likely underestimate the scale of solar adoption in CVF countries. In 80% of these nations, the cumulative volume of solar panel imports since 2017 is at least three times higher than the installed capacity recorded in official statistics.
• The economic advantage of solar power has shifted; it is now competitive with fossil power on a pure capital expenditure (capex) basis. A decade ago, solar required up to five times the upfront investment of coal or gas plants per MWh, but it now requires less upfront capital than fossil fuels.
• Decentralized solar-plus-battery systems are increasingly outcompeting traditional grid extension for remote communities. By 2026, these systems are cheaper than extending the grid for any community located more than a few tens of kilometres from existing lines.
• The cost of electric end-use technologies, including two-wheelers and cooling systems, has decreased by 30% to 95% over the last ten years, making these services accessible to low-income households and businesses for the first time.
• Fossil fuel dependency creates a significant economic drain and exposes CVF nations to external price shocks. In 2024, net fossil fuel importers within the CVF spent $155 billion on imports; in 19 countries, these imports account for more than 50% of the trade deficit.
• CVF nations possess strategic leverage through critical minerals, manufacturing geography, and growing consumer markets, which are currently being contested by China, the US, and the EU. Examples of leveraging these assets include Morocco's use of phosphate reserves to become a battery materials hub and Viet Nam's industrial policy to build an electronics manufacturing base.

APA

Walter, D., Butler-Sloss, S., Issac, A., & Bond, K. (2026). The electric fast-track for emerging markets. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/The-electric-fast-track-for-emerging-markets-PDF-1.pdf

Chicago

Walter, Daan, Sam Butler-Sloss, Antoine Issac, and Kingsmill Bond. The electric fast-track for emerging markets. Ember, 2026. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/The-electric-fast-track-for-emerging-markets-PDF-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Walter |first1=Daan |last2=Butler-Sloss |first2=Sam |last3=Issac |first3=Antoine |last4=Bond |first4=Kingsmill |title=The electric fast-track for emerging markets |publisher=Ember |date=2 April 2026 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/The-electric-fast-track-for-emerging-markets-PDF-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{walter2026electric, author = {Walter, Daan and Butler-Sloss, Sam and Issac, Antoine and Bond, Kingsmill}, title = {{The electric fast-track for emerging markets}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2026/04/The-electric-fast-track-for-emerging-markets-PDF-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }