Wildfires: Security Risks and Military Responses

The 2026 wildfire season has seen record-breaking burn areas, with roughly 579,000 square miles burned globally in the first four months. This trend is driven by a powerful El Niño, hydroclimate 'whiplash', and the expansion of fires into previously immune regions. These conditions have led to over 110 military deployments across 49 countries between January and July 2026, straining defense priorities and threatening critical infrastructure. The document analyzes different military response models—ranging from Spain's dedicated standing unit (UME) to Indonesia's integrated civilian-military approach—and recommends expanding collaborative models, investing in joint training, and building international interoperability to manage wildfires as a standing security challenge.

• The 2026 wildfire season is characterized by extreme activity, with approximately 579,000 square miles burned globally in the first four months, which is roughly double the seasonal average.
• Three primary dynamics are driving the new fire era: a record-strength El Niño deepening drought and heat, hydroclimate 'whiplash' (rapid swings between extreme wet and dry periods), and the emergence of fires in new locations and times, including high elevations in Europe's mountains.
• Wildfires are placing significant demand on defense establishments, with militaries deploying more than 110 times in 49 countries from January to July 2026, including over 30 deployments in Europe during June and July.
• Wildfires create direct security risks by disrupting military training grounds, threatening defense and aerospace sites, and impacting critical energy, water, and transport networks. In Ukraine, combat activities such as shelling and missile strikes ignited an estimated 70 percent of forest fires in northern regions during 2022–2023.
• Extreme weather is being weaponized geopolitically, exemplified by Greek politicians blaming migrants for fires in 2023 and US President Trump threatening tariffs on Canada due to wildfire smoke drifting into US cities in 2026.
• National military response models vary: Spain utilizes a dedicated standing unit (UME) with a primary disaster response mission; Indonesia employs a hybrid system where the military is integrated into civilian agencies and a national coordination desk; and the US and Australia primarily use general-purpose forces as a surge reserve.
• New proactive strategies are emerging, such as France's establishment of the 4e RIISC regiment in the southwest, the EU's integrated wildfire strategy featuring a rescEU fleet, and the US FY2026 NDAA which treats wildfires as a standing military mission.

APA

Sikorsky, E., Yusko, K., & Reiner, A. (2026). Wildfires: Security Risks and Military Responses. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/83-Wildfires.pdf

Chicago

Sikorsky, Erin, Katherine Yusko, and Abby Reiner. Wildfires: Security Risks and Military Responses. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2026. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/83-Wildfires.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sikorsky |first1=Erin |last2=Yusko |first2=Katherine |last3=Reiner |first3=Abby |title=Wildfires: Security Risks and Military Responses |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=13 August 2026 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/83-Wildfires.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sikorsky2026wildfires, author = {Sikorsky, Erin and Yusko, Katherine and Reiner, Abby}, title = {{Wildfires: Security Risks and Military Responses}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2026}, month = aug, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/83-Wildfires.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }