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The document argues that Africa is experiencing a growing economic divergence from the rest of the world, with GDP per capita projected to be less than one quarter of the global average by 2040. While human well-being indicators like life expectancy have improved, the continent's growth is constrained by an unproductive economic structure dominated by low-end informal services and a slow demographic transition. To ignite a 'growth revolution', the author advocates for a 'bottom-up' approach focusing on basic infrastructure, reducing fertility rates, and transitioning toward manufacturing and productive agriculture. The brief emphasizes that leveraging the fourth industrial revolution, renewable energy, and the African Continental Free Trade Area, alongside accountable leadership, is essential to reversing commodity dependence and achieving sustainable prosperity.

The report outlines the safeguards framework for the Resilient Landscapes and Livelihoods Project in Ethiopia, categorising it as Category B. It details the disclosure of the Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), Resettlement Policy Framework, and Social Assessment, and specifies the project's implementation across 210 Woredas in six Ethiopian regions.

The document argues that while COVID-19 initially calmed political rivalries by redirecting focus toward the health crisis, it may in the medium term exacerbate instability. The author highlights risks of unorganised riots driven by economic desperation and a potential regime-opposition standoff over how the country should be governed after the state of emergency ends and the ruling party's term expires. It suggests that stability depends on the capacity of political actors to negotiate a constitutionally mandated governance framework and the government's willingness to involve non-state actors in pandemic management.

The document examines the relationship between climate change and migration in Africa, challenging the narrative of mass international 'climate refugee' flows. It posits that migration is an active resilience strategy used by households to diversify income and spread risk, though the most vulnerable are often trapped by a lack of resources. The brief highlights the prevalence of internal migration, the risks of unplanned urbanisation, and the need for African policymakers to develop governance frameworks tailored to local realities rather than relying on international models.

The report analyzes the drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia, focusing on the cyclical relationship between political institutions and nationalist mobilizations. It argues that the 'centralised ethno federation' established by the EPRDF created fault lines that, when combined with recent political liberalization and institutional fragility, led to widespread violence. The author examines specific conflicts in the north, west, and south, applying the concepts of the 'security dilemma' and 'invidious comparison' to explain micro-level violence. The document concludes that sustainable stability requires transforming the ruling party, conducting inclusive national dialogue, and reclaiming state autonomy from mob influence.

The report attributes the rise in Ethiopia's ethnic violence, particularly since 2018, to a self-reinforcing cycle of contending ethno-nationalisms and institutional fragility. It argues that the centralized ethno-federal system created paradoxes of empowerment and disempowerment, while the ruling party (EPRDF) became fractured along ethnic lines. The author identifies 'security dilemmas'—where groups arm themselves for protection, thereby increasing the insecurity of others—as a micro-level driver of conflict. The report recommends internal party negotiations, a broad national dialogue to reconstitute the state, professionalization of security forces, and urgent job creation for youth to address economic grievances.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) faces a gap between political enthusiasm and technical implementation. While the African Union aims for a formal launch in July 2019, critical components such as tariff schedules, rules of origin, and protocols for trade in goods and services remain unfinished. UNCTAD suggests full liberalisation could increase intra-African exports by 33%, but failure to deliver concrete benefits for investors and traders could undermine the project's legitimacy.

Egypt's 2019 AU chairmanship focuses on economic goals, intra-African trade, and institutional reform, though the author notes a significant gap regarding governance and the need for Egypt to ratify the CFTA.

The paper examines the decline of urban accessibility in the global South due to rapid urbanization and motorization. It introduces an access-mobility framework to categorize under-served residents and proposes three priority action areas: building safe, democratic street networks; developing integrated, user-oriented transport services; and managing private vehicle demand. The authors emphasize that these actions require capable governance and sustainable funding models to move cities from a vicious cycle of car-dependency to a virtuous cycle of balanced, multimodal transport.

The document analyzes the remittance landscape in Ethiopia, noting a significant discrepancy between World Bank and National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) inflow estimates. It identifies a high reliance on informal channels, estimated at 65% to 80% of remittance value, driven primarily by an overvalued currency and restrictive foreign exchange controls. The formal sector is bank-led and dominated by a few large players, with limited digital penetration due to the absence of e-money licenses and a lack of a national ID database. Infrastructure challenges, including low electricity and internet access and a basic national payment system lacking a retail electronic funds transfer (EFT) system, further hinder the efficiency of formal transfers. The report recommends implementing a risk-based approach to AML/CFT, legalizing foreign currency exchange at market rates, and developing a comprehensive e-money regulatory framework to reduce informality and costs.

The paper frames climate change adaptation as a development challenge, arguing that while financial resources are often a constraint, non-financial barriers such as market failures, governance issues, and behavioral biases are equally critical. It highlights that adaptation and development are inextricably linked, and that 'climate-informed' development can significantly reduce economic losses and poverty. The document reviews various global and local cost estimates, noting that these vary widely based on the reference point used. It recommends a broad definition of adaptation and a focus on removing structural obstacles to maximize the benefits of resilience investments.

The article introduces a framework for comparative urban research in the developing world, asserting that urban transformations—including land use, construction patterns, and environmental regulation—reveal the underlying national political settlements and clientelism. The author illustrates this approach through narrative sketches of Kampala, Kigali, and Addis Ababa.

The workshop, attended by Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MEFCC) staff, focused on creating an action plan to communicate Ethiopia's NAP process. Participants developed messages for international entities like the UNFCCC and multilateral donors, emphasizing the need for technical and financial support. The group identified priority channels including the MEFCC website, policy briefs, and social media for international reach, while noting that radio, television, and clan leaders are essential for reaching national audiences due to limited internet usage and linguistic diversity.

The report details a workshop conducted by the NAP Global Network with the Ethiopian government to transition from the finalization of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH) to its implementation. It outlines five strategic priorities for adaptation: mainstreaming into policies, building institutional capacity, establishing sustainable funding, advancing research, and improving knowledge management. The document also assesses the opportunities and challenges regarding vertical integration, noting that while political commitment and existing governance structures are strengths, financial constraints and capacity gaps at sub-national levels remain significant hurdles.

Ethiopia is positioned as a climate leader, being the first Least Developed Country to submit an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). The government aims to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions from 150 Mt CO2eq in 2010 to 145 Mt CO2eq by 2030. To support these goals, CDKN has assisted the Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation (MoFEC) in achieving accreditation as a National Implementing Entity for the Green Climate Fund and the Adaptation Fund in March 2016. Infrastructure investments include a 34-km light rail transit in Addis Ababa and a 750-km railway to Djibouti. Additionally, CDKN is supporting the development of geothermal risk insurance and research into greening the industrial sector, specifically leather, garments, and cement.

The African Union (AU) has established several legal frameworks to combat terrorism, including the 1999 Algiers Convention and the 2004 Protocol, but implementation is stalled by low ratification rates among member states. Key countries facing terrorism, such as Nigeria and Somalia, have not ratified the 2004 Protocol. The AU's efforts are further undermined by a lack of monitoring systems, severe funding shortages—with member states contributing only 40% of the 2016 budget—and a tendency for international powers like the US and France to bypass the AU in favor of direct bilateral operations with individual states.

The paper analyzes the relationship between China and Ethiopia, highlighting how Ethiopia's 'developmental state' model and strategic location in the Horn of Africa make it a key partner for China. It details Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications, while noting that China's political influence is constrained by Ethiopia's strong national pride and centralized power structures. The document also explores China's increasing role in regional stability through the African Union and IGAD.

The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a coalition of Cameroon, Niger, Nigeria, and Chad, along with Benin, was established to combat Boko Haram. While the force has achieved some operational gains since early 2016, it continues to struggle with significant financial shortfalls, political mistrust among member states, and a gap between official claims of operationality and the reality on the ground. The African Union (AU) serves as a critical strategic and technical partner, filling an institutional vacuum left by the Lake Chad Basin Commission's (LCBC) limited experience in peace operations.

Ethiopia has established a comprehensive framework for a climate-resilient green economy, led by the Prime Minister's Office and integrated into national development plans. The country has invested significantly from its own budget—approximately 14.5% between 2008 and 2012—and established the Climate Resilient Green Economy Facility to attract international finance, securing US$40 million from bilateral partners by 2015. Key achievements include the 2015 submission of an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and the development of green infrastructure like the Addis Ababa light rail. However, barriers remain, including the need for deeper integration into operational budgeting, technical capacity gaps, and the challenge of replicating federal success at the regional level.

The 2015 drought in north and central Ethiopia was an extremely rare event, estimated to occur once every few hundred years in the current climate. Analysis by World Weather Attribution indicates that a strong El Niño enhanced the drought, making it significantly drier during the Kiremt season. However, the study found no conclusive evidence that human-induced climate change influenced the event, as results from various climate models were inconsistent and spanned a range from the drought being less likely to more likely. Despite the severity of the event, which affected nearly 10 million people and caused significant crop and livestock losses, the impact was lower than droughts in 1973 and 1984, suggesting improved national resilience.