Drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia

The report analyzes the drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia, focusing on the cyclical relationship between political institutions and nationalist mobilizations. It argues that the 'centralised ethno federation' established by the EPRDF created fault lines that, when combined with recent political liberalization and institutional fragility, led to widespread violence. The author examines specific conflicts in the north, west, and south, applying the concepts of the 'security dilemma' and 'invidious comparison' to explain micro-level violence. The document concludes that sustainable stability requires transforming the ruling party, conducting inclusive national dialogue, and reclaiming state autonomy from mob influence.

• The surge in violent conflicts in Ethiopia since 2018 is primarily driven by the rise of competing, militant ethnic nationalisms occurring alongside the perceived fragility of state and party institutions.
• The EPRDF's 'centralised ethno federation' created a contradictory system where ethnic units had local administration, but hierarchical rule and ideology were issued from the top, undermining the principle of self-rule.
• Ethnic federalism both empowered historically marginalised groups through language rights and disempowered others by creating a sense of Tigrayan domination and a divisive 'native' versus 'newcomer' dynamic.
• Amhara nationalism emerged as a mass movement recently, partly as a reaction to ethnic federalism, which was perceived as an instrument to downgrade the Amhara and their history.
• A 'security dilemma' exists between ethnic groups, where one group's attempt to build military power for security is perceived as a threat by others, leading to a cycle of counter-militarisation.
• Violence is further fueled by 'invidious comparison,' where individuals tie their personal worth to their ethnic group and seek to establish that group's worth in contrast to others.
• The ruling EPRDF coalition has suffered internal fractures, with constituent parties like the ADP and ODP lacking unity and sometimes promoting extreme agendas, which hinders the state's ability to manage conflicts.
• State fragility is evidenced by the breakdown of command structures in some localities, where security and administrative functions have been overtaken by protest networks or mob influence.
• Economic downturn and high unemployment, particularly among youth, have acted as sources of grievance and reduced the opportunity cost for individuals to engage in violence.
• The state's attempt to shift from repressive measures to 'softer' peacebuilding approaches has created a perception of weakness and a reluctance among security forces to act during violence.

APA

Yusuf, S. (2019). Drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mono-202-2.pdf

Chicago

Yusuf, Semir. Drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mono-202-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yusuf |first1=Semir |title=Drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mono-202-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yusuf2019drivers, author = {Yusuf, Semir}, title = {{Drivers of ethnic conflict in contemporary Ethiopia}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/mono-202-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }