What is driving Ethiopia’s ethnic conflicts?

The report attributes the rise in Ethiopia's ethnic violence, particularly since 2018, to a self-reinforcing cycle of contending ethno-nationalisms and institutional fragility. It argues that the centralized ethno-federal system created paradoxes of empowerment and disempowerment, while the ruling party (EPRDF) became fractured along ethnic lines. The author identifies 'security dilemmas'—where groups arm themselves for protection, thereby increasing the insecurity of others—as a micro-level driver of conflict. The report recommends internal party negotiations, a broad national dialogue to reconstitute the state, professionalization of security forces, and urgent job creation for youth to address economic grievances.

• The increase in violent ethnic conflict in Ethiopia, especially since 2018, is driven by a cycle where contending ethnic mobilisations and the incoherence of state and party institutions reinforce one another.
• Ethiopia's ethnic federalism system has produced contradictory results, providing some groups with local power while maintaining a centralized control structure that fostered perceptions of continued domination by a single ethnic clique and created divisions between 'natives' and 'settlers'.
• State institutions have been weakened by protest movements, resulting in broken chains of command in security and administrative branches in regions such as Amhara and Oromia, and a loss of autonomy.
• The ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), is plagued by internal incoherence and active infighting among its constituent ethnic parties, which hinders the enforcement of law and order.
• Many ethnic conflicts are driven by 'security dilemmas,' where one group's attempt to increase its own security through militarization is perceived as a threat by another group, triggering a reactive build-up of power.
• Economic instability, characterized by high inflation, falling living standards, and a job creation rate that fails to keep pace with population growth, has created fertile conditions for youth to engage in conflict for opportunistic reasons.

APA

Yusuf, S. (2019). What is driving Ethiopia’s ethnic conflicts? Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-28.pdf

Chicago

Yusuf, Semir. What is driving Ethiopia’s ethnic conflicts? Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-28.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yusuf |first1=Semir |title=What is driving Ethiopia’s ethnic conflicts? |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-28.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yusuf2019what, author = {Yusuf, Semir}, title = {{What is driving Ethiopia’s ethnic conflicts?}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-28.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }