COVID-19 and political stability in Ethiopia

The document argues that while COVID-19 initially calmed political rivalries by redirecting focus toward the health crisis, it may in the medium term exacerbate instability. The author highlights risks of unorganised riots driven by economic desperation and a potential regime-opposition standoff over how the country should be governed after the state of emergency ends and the ruling party's term expires. It suggests that stability depends on the capacity of political actors to negotiate a constitutionally mandated governance framework and the government's willingness to involve non-state actors in pandemic management.

• The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily reduced political tensions as opposing groups shifted their focus from contentious political issues to the health crisis.
• In the short term, the pandemic and the government's containment measures may trigger unorganised riots and protests, driven by increased poverty, economic inequality, and food insecurity, particularly among the urban poor and homeless.
• The postponement of national elections originally scheduled for late August 2020, combined with the end of the ruling party's term, creates a potential legitimacy crisis and a risk of a standoff between the government and opposition forces.
• The state of emergency (SoE) provides the ruling party an opportunity to strengthen its institutional power, centralise security apparatuses, and re-establish command and control, though this may not be accompanied by ideological coherence.
• Opposition parties have seen their mobilisation and internal reorganisation efforts halted by the pandemic, potentially leaving them unable to lead orderly challenges to state rule, which may instead result in chaotic movements.
• The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is expected to emerge as a more powerful opposition force because it is implementing its own state of emergency at the regional level in Tigray, enhancing its capacity to mobilise and control.

APA

Yusuf, S. (2020). COVID-19 and political stability in Ethiopia. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb143-2.pdf

Chicago

Yusuf, Semir. COVID-19 and political stability in Ethiopia. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb143-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yusuf |first1=Semir |title=COVID-19 and political stability in Ethiopia |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb143-2.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yusuf2020covid19, author = {Yusuf, Semir}, title = {{COVID-19 and political stability in Ethiopia}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/pb143-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }