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The report details a scenario exercise where experts simulated the collapse of ecosystems in a fictional Southeast Asian state to explore the resulting security risks. The exercise demonstrated a feedback loop where ecological failure—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—triggered food insecurity, mass migration, and internal conflict. This instability led to a political shift from a semi-democratic system to an authoritarian state, as ruling elites prioritized self-preservation and stability over ecological restoration. The findings suggest that preventing ecological disruption is significantly more effective than attempting restoration during a security crisis, and the report recommends integrating ecological security into global security frameworks and investing in early governance stability.

The report details a scenario exercise involving a fictional Southeast Asian state, Khomland, to explore the security implications of ecological collapse. The simulation demonstrates a feedback loop where ecosystem degradation—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—drives food insecurity and mass migration, which in turn fuels political conflict and the consolidation of authoritarian power. Key findings highlight that restoration is significantly more difficult than prevention and that political elites often weaponize crisis management to maintain power. The document concludes with recommendations for international and regional bodies to prioritize ecological security, invest in governance stability, and deploy nature-based solutions to build societal resilience.

The report identifies a critical policy gap where climate change, food insecurity, and national security are often addressed in silos. It argues that while the U.S. intelligence and military communities recognize these as top security concerns, current interventions remain focused on immediate humanitarian aid rather than long-term community resilience. The document recommends scaling up R&D, synchronizing agricultural emission cuts with food supply needs, and integrating geopolitical risks into strategic military and government planning to prevent global instability and conflict.

The document details the efforts of community leader Ana Cecilia Solís Ugalde and the MUDECOOP cooperative in Manzanillo, Puntarenas, to combat climate change through the creation of the area's first covered mangrove nursery. The project aims to establish natural barriers against tidal waves and flooding, which threaten a community where 80% of residents live in mangrove areas. Beyond reforestation, the initiative addresses food insecurity via a communal dining room for children during fishing moratoriums and droughts, and promotes community tourism as an alternative income source to offset the loss of artisanal fishing revenue.

The document outlines the challenges of urban food insecurity in Zambia, drawing on household surveys from 14 cities. It advocates for a diverse urban food system that integrates formal and informal sources, such as street vending and urban agriculture. The toolkit details how the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) can be used for food-system investments and maps specific local and national policies—including those related to land, energy, and climate change—that can be leveraged to improve food access and affordability.

Mongla, a coastal port town in Bangladesh, faces severe climate risks including sea-level rise, salinity intrusion, and frequent cyclones. While the community suffers from declining fish stocks and reproductive health issues due to water scarcity, the local government has implemented infrastructure projects such as a 11km marine drive road and flood-control gates. Under Mayor Sheikh Abdur Rahman, the town has successfully reduced casualties during extreme weather events, such as Cyclone Sitrang, through the strategic use of cyclone centers and emergency supplies. Future resilience efforts focus on expanding water treatment facilities and securing international funding for human-centric adaptation.

The Horn of Africa faces severe challenges including governance failure, chronic food insecurity, and high poverty rates, with no countries on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The region is characterized by a very young population and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by climate change and conflict. While Ethiopia and Sudan dominate the regional GDP, most nations suffer from poor infrastructure and dysfunctional health and education systems. The report models an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario involving improvements in governance, agriculture, and human capital, which could significantly increase regional GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.

The health systems of the Horn of Africa are severely strained by conflict, insecurity, and drought, leading to high rates of malnutrition and maternal and child mortality. While life expectancy has generally increased, the region struggles to meet SDG targets, with a dual burden of persistent communicable diseases and steady rates of non-communicable diseases and injuries.

The document analyzes the South African food system as a site of deep social inequality and climate vulnerability. It highlights a dualistic production structure where a small number of large-scale commercial farms dominate, while millions of smallholder farmers lack resources. The paper details the system's vulnerability to climate change—specifically heatwaves, droughts, and rainfall variability—and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, primarily through livestock and synthetic fertilizers. It critiques 'market-centred' and 'technofix' approaches to sustainability, advocating instead for a 'deep just transition' based on agroecology, food sovereignty, and the redistribution of power and resources to ensure the right to food and decent work for all.

Somalia is identified as the second most climate-vulnerable country globally, currently facing its worst drought in 40 years which has displaced 7.8 million people. To address this, the government established the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change in August 2022 and is developing a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) focusing on agriculture, water management, public health, and disaster preparedness. Implementation is hindered by financial constraints, institutional coordination gaps, and security risks posed by the conflict with Al-Shabaab, which prevents officials from accessing certain regions to implement adaptation measures.

The Institute for Economic Justice (IEJ) expresses concern over the Department of Social Development's draft amendments to the Covid-19 Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant, which only extend the grant's expiry to March 2024 without increasing its R350 monthly value. The IEJ argues that the lack of funding in the 2023/24 National Budget suggests a plan to withdraw the grant, which would exacerbate food insecurity amid 13.4% food inflation in January 2023. Furthermore, the IEJ highlights that beneficiary numbers have dropped by approximately three million since March 2022 due to exclusionary regulations and flawed application systems. The IEJ calls for the grant to be retained indefinitely and transitioned into a comprehensive basic income support system, asserting that National Treasury has the fiscal space to do so following a R94 billion revenue overrun.

The document describes the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a natural climate pattern consisting of warm (El Niño), cold (La Niña), and neutral phases driven by sea surface temperatures and pressures in the tropical Pacific. It details how these phases disrupt atmospheric circulation, affecting global precipitation and temperature. Specifically, La Niña is associated with wetter conditions in Australia and Indonesia and warmer, drier winters in the southern U.S., while El Niño is linked to drought in Australia and Indonesia and cooler, wetter winters in the southern U.S. The text emphasizes that while ENSO can nudge global temperatures, it does not mask the long-term warming trend caused by carbon pollution; for instance, 2022 remained the sixth hottest year on record despite a persistent La Niña. Historical data from the 2015-2016 El Niño event highlights severe consequences, including forest fires in Indonesia, flooding in Peru, and an estimated 60 million people impacted by extremes across Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Asia-Pacific region.

The document explains the distinction between global warming and climate change, attributing current rapid warming to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and deforestation. It details the resulting increase in extreme weather events and highlights the disproportionate burden on marginalized communities and the Global South. The guide advocates for a transition to renewable energy, increased resource efficiency, and carbon removal to mitigate future disasters.

The Eswatini Outreach Programme, supported by the NAP Global Network, conducted workshops and case studies across Eswatini's four administrative regions to integrate traditional knowledge into climate adaptation. The programme found that while traditional early warning systems remain prominent in rural areas, they are declining due to modern living and a lack of coordination in documentation. It highlighted the extreme vulnerability of peri-urban areas like KaKhoza, which are often overlooked by adaptation programmes, and called for a nationwide outreach strategy, a formal monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) system, and the archiving of indigenous knowledge to inform scientific climate observations.

The report documents the physical, mental, and community-level impacts of fracking in Northeastern British Columbia through interviews and surveys. Residents report chronic stress and sleep disruption caused by constant noise, light, and odours, alongside acute symptoms like sore throats and headaches following emissions. Long-term health concerns raised include multiple chemical sensitivities, year-round allergies, respiratory issues, and elevated cancer rates in young people. The document also highlights community degradation, including the loss of social networks as residents move away, food insecurity for Indigenous peoples due to contaminated traditional foods, and public safety risks from transient workers. The authors recommend a moratorium on new natural gas wells in Canada and the implementation of the precautionary principle to protect residents.

The document examines the relationship between climate change and conflict in Africa, asserting that climate change functions as a 'risk multiplier' that exacerbates existing political, social, and economic tensions. It highlights that while some regions like the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin are particularly vulnerable, the path from climate impact to violence is indirect, often mediated by resource scarcity, forced migration, and institutional weakness. The report calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African nations to adopt evidence-based, community-informed adaptation strategies that are sensitive to local conflict dynamics to prevent future instability.

A collaborative scientific analysis concludes that greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions contributed to the increased likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall during Tropical Storm Ana and Tropical Cyclone Batsirai in early 2022. While Tropical Storm Ana was a rare event for Malawi and Mozambique (1 in 50 years), Cyclone Batsirai was more common for Madagascar (1 in 2 years). The study highlights that existing vulnerabilities, including prior flooding, conflict in northern Mozambique, and drought in southern Madagascar, exacerbated the humanitarian impacts.

The document explores the complex, indirect link between climate change and violent conflict in Africa, emphasizing that while climate change is a 'risk multiplier', it does not cause conflict in a simple cause-and-effect manner. It highlights regional examples from North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and Southern Africa, noting that vulnerability is often tied to existing institutional weaknesses and social inequalities. The author calls for the Global North to fulfill climate finance commitments and for African states to prioritize evidence-based, community-informed adaptation measures that account for local conflict dynamics.

The document identifies a substantial increase in protests in the Global South after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, driven by food and energy insecurity. Analyzing ACLED data, the authors found food protests in 32 countries and fuel protests in 37 countries. While many protests are isolated, in some nations—such as Paraguay, Guatemala, and Peru—these grievances constituted a significant portion of all unrest events. The report argues that such protests serve as warnings of household hardship and can lead to severe political consequences, citing the flight of Sri Lanka's president as an example.

The report analyzes how climate change acts as a 'threat multiplier' in Asia, compounding existing social, political, and economic vulnerabilities to exacerbate conflict and drive migration. Focusing on Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, it examines how environmental stressors like droughts and floods intersect with ethnic discrimination and political instability. It highlights the specific vulnerabilities of displaced populations, such as the Rohingya and Afghans, who often reside in hazard-prone urban slums or camps. The document argues that national and regional policies frequently omit the climate-conflict-migration nexus and recommends that humanitarian agencies and policy-makers integrate these linkages to build long-term resilience and support safe, regular migration.