Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia

The report details a scenario exercise involving a fictional Southeast Asian state, Khomland, to explore the security implications of ecological collapse. The simulation demonstrates a feedback loop where ecosystem degradation—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—drives food insecurity and mass migration, which in turn fuels political conflict and the consolidation of authoritarian power. Key findings highlight that restoration is significantly more difficult than prevention and that political elites often weaponize crisis management to maintain power. The document concludes with recommendations for international and regional bodies to prioritize ecological security, invest in governance stability, and deploy nature-based solutions to build societal resilience.

• Human-driven ecological disruption, including the mismanagement of ecosystems and climate change, can trigger domestic security crises by causing the collapse of fisheries and coastal agriculture, which leads to food and job insecurity and large-scale urban migration.
• Ecological degradation and climate change act as catalysts for internal conflict; specifically, the combination of upland deforestation and intense precipitation increases vulnerability to severe flooding in population centers, while extreme wet bulb temperatures can cause mass casualties during social unrest.
• Societies struggling with internal security and political crises often lack the community cooperation, funding, and monitoring capacities required for ecosystem restoration, making ecological mitigation a more achievable but less effective goal than prevention.
• There is a destructive feedback loop where ecological degradation drives insecurity and unrest, which then distracts political actors from restoration efforts, allowing further ecological decline to continue.
• Ecological crises can lead to the erosion of democratic systems and the establishment of concentrated authoritarian states, as ruling elites may use the guise of preserving state stability to amass more power.
• International aid and funds intended for ecological crisis management are susceptible to diversion by corrupt elites, and risk-averse international NGOs may withdraw humanitarian aid when domestic political environments become too precarious.

APA

Bentley, R., Boland, L., Zarfos, M. R., & Rezzonico, A. (2023). Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ESPPolicyGameSEA.pdf

Chicago

Bentley, Robert, Lily Boland, Michael R. Zarfos, and Andrea Rezzonico. Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ESPPolicyGameSEA.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley |first1=Robert |last2=Boland |first2=Lily |last3=Zarfos |first3=Michael R. |last4=Rezzonico |first4=Andrea |title=Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=September 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ESPPolicyGameSEA.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentley2023ecological, author = {Bentley, Robert and Boland, Lily and Zarfos, Michael R. and Rezzonico, Andrea}, title = {{Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ESPPolicyGameSEA.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }