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The report details a scenario exercise where experts simulated the collapse of ecosystems in a fictional Southeast Asian state to explore the resulting security risks. The exercise demonstrated a feedback loop where ecological failure—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—triggered food insecurity, mass migration, and internal conflict. This instability led to a political shift from a semi-democratic system to an authoritarian state, as ruling elites prioritized self-preservation and stability over ecological restoration. The findings suggest that preventing ecological disruption is significantly more effective than attempting restoration during a security crisis, and the report recommends integrating ecological security into global security frameworks and investing in early governance stability.

The report details a scenario exercise involving a fictional Southeast Asian state, Khomland, to explore the security implications of ecological collapse. The simulation demonstrates a feedback loop where ecosystem degradation—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—drives food insecurity and mass migration, which in turn fuels political conflict and the consolidation of authoritarian power. Key findings highlight that restoration is significantly more difficult than prevention and that political elites often weaponize crisis management to maintain power. The document concludes with recommendations for international and regional bodies to prioritize ecological security, invest in governance stability, and deploy nature-based solutions to build societal resilience.

The document examines how emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs)—including AI, cyber weapons, hypersonic missiles, and social media—undermine traditional nuclear deterrence by disrupting information flows, compressing decision timeframes, and transforming decision contexts. It argues that these technologies exacerbate human cognitive biases, such as automation bias and confirmation bias, which can lead to unintended nuclear escalation. To mitigate these risks, the authors propose a multidimensional strategy combining policy regulations on social media, technical tools like blockchain authentication and explainable AI, and traditional arms control measures such as 'no first use' declarations and the elimination of dual-capable delivery systems.