A Handbook for Nuclear Decision-Making and Risk Reduction in an Era of Technological Complexity

The document examines how emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs)—including AI, cyber weapons, hypersonic missiles, and social media—undermine traditional nuclear deterrence by disrupting information flows, compressing decision timeframes, and transforming decision contexts. It argues that these technologies exacerbate human cognitive biases, such as automation bias and confirmation bias, which can lead to unintended nuclear escalation. To mitigate these risks, the authors propose a multidimensional strategy combining policy regulations on social media, technical tools like blockchain authentication and explainable AI, and traditional arms control measures such as 'no first use' declarations and the elimination of dual-capable delivery systems.

• Emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) create four primary technological effects that undermine nuclear decision-making: the disruption of information flows, the illumination of behavior patterns, the compression of decision timeframes, and the transformation of decision contexts.
• Social media platforms facilitate disinformation campaigns that can lead to nuclear miscalculation, as seen in 2016 when a Pakistani defense minister tweeted a nuclear threat based on a false online report about Israel.
• Cyber weapons can directly interfere with nuclear command and control systems (NC3), potentially spoofing signals to create false alarms of an incoming attack or disabling critical communication links.
• The proliferation of high-resolution commercial satellite imagery and AI-enabled analysis increases transparency, which may destabilize deterrence by threatening the stealth and survivability of second-strike forces like nuclear-armed submarines.
• Hypersonic weapons compress decision timeframes and increase the risk of first-strike attacks because they are harder to detect and track than ballistic missiles and can change trajectory after launch.
• The integration of AI into nuclear decision support systems introduces the 'black box problem,' where the lack of explainability regarding how an AI reached a conclusion may lead decision-makers to either over-trust the system (automation bias) or reject it entirely.
• EDTs exacerbate specific cognitive biases: information overload from social media heightens the 'availability heuristic,' while the speed of autonomous systems may increase 'restraint bias' and the pressure to act impulsively.
• The 'cyber-nuclear escalation dilemma' arises because the secrecy required for effective cyber weapons contradicts the transparency and overt communication required for stable nuclear deterrence.
• To reduce risks, the document suggests technical solutions such as using blockchain for the authentication of official government communications to prevent deep fake interference.
• Proposed arms control measures to mitigate EDT-driven risks include adopting 'no first use' policies, eliminating low-yield nuclear weapons, and removing dual-capable delivery systems to reduce warhead ambiguity.

APA

Bajema, N. E., & Gower, J. (2022). A Handbook for Nuclear Decision-Making and Risk Reduction in an Era of Technological Complexity. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/NuclearTechnologicalComplexity-Dec22.pdf

Chicago

Bajema, Natasha E., and John Gower. A Handbook for Nuclear Decision-Making and Risk Reduction in an Era of Technological Complexity. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2022. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/NuclearTechnologicalComplexity-Dec22.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bajema |first1=Natasha E. |last2=Gower |first2=John |title=A Handbook for Nuclear Decision-Making and Risk Reduction in an Era of Technological Complexity |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=December 2022 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/NuclearTechnologicalComplexity-Dec22.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bajema2022handbook, author = {Bajema, Natasha E. and Gower, John}, title = {{A Handbook for Nuclear Decision-Making and Risk Reduction in an Era of Technological Complexity}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2022}, month = dec, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/NuclearTechnologicalComplexity-Dec22.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }