Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia: An Ecological Security Policy Game

The report details a scenario exercise where experts simulated the collapse of ecosystems in a fictional Southeast Asian state to explore the resulting security risks. The exercise demonstrated a feedback loop where ecological failure—specifically the collapse of fisheries and agriculture—triggered food insecurity, mass migration, and internal conflict. This instability led to a political shift from a semi-democratic system to an authoritarian state, as ruling elites prioritized self-preservation and stability over ecological restoration. The findings suggest that preventing ecological disruption is significantly more effective than attempting restoration during a security crisis, and the report recommends integrating ecological security into global security frameworks and investing in early governance stability.

• Human-driven ecological disruption, combined with climate change, can trigger domestic security crises by causing the collapse of essential food sources and livelihoods, leading to large-scale urban migration.
• Ecological degradation and extreme weather events, such as severe flooding and lethal wet bulb temperatures, can catalyze and escalate internal civil conflict.
• Societies facing ecological crises often pivot from attempting to restore ecosystem services to merely managing the crisis, as restoration requires long-term cooperation and funding that are typically absent during political instability.
• A feedback loop exists where ecological degradation drives insecurity and unrest, which in turn distracts policymakers and actors from restoration efforts, further exacerbating the ecological collapse.
• Severe ecological and societal crises can lead to the consolidation of power by ruling elites, potentially transforming semi-democratic systems into authoritarian states in the name of maintaining stability.
• International aid and funding for ecological crises are often diverted by corrupt elites, and risk-averse international NGOs may withdraw humanitarian support as domestic conflict increases.

APA

Bentley, R., Boland, L., Zarfos, M. R., & Rezzonico, A. (2023). Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia: An Ecological Security Policy Game. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/09/13/ecological-risk-in-a-future-southeast-asia-an-ecological-security-policy-game/

Chicago

Bentley, Robert, Lily Boland, Michael R. Zarfos, and Andrea Rezzonico. Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia: An Ecological Security Policy Game. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/09/13/ecological-risk-in-a-future-southeast-asia-an-ecological-security-policy-game/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bentley |first1=Robert |last2=Boland |first2=Lily |last3=Zarfos |first3=Michael R. |last4=Rezzonico |first4=Andrea |title=Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia: An Ecological Security Policy Game |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=13 September 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/09/13/ecological-risk-in-a-future-southeast-asia-an-ecological-security-policy-game/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bentley2023ecological, author = {Bentley, Robert and Boland, Lily and Zarfos, Michael R. and Rezzonico, Andrea}, title = {{Ecological Risk in a Future Southeast Asia: An Ecological Security Policy Game}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2023/09/13/ecological-risk-in-a-future-southeast-asia-an-ecological-security-policy-game/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }