Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi

A collaborative scientific analysis concludes that greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions contributed to the increased likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall during Tropical Storm Ana and Tropical Cyclone Batsirai in early 2022. While Tropical Storm Ana was a rare event for Malawi and Mozambique (1 in 50 years), Cyclone Batsirai was more common for Madagascar (1 in 2 years). The study highlights that existing vulnerabilities, including prior flooding, conflict in northern Mozambique, and drought in southern Madagascar, exacerbated the humanitarian impacts.

• Human-induced climate change, specifically greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, is partially responsible for the observed increases in the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ana and Tropical Cyclone Batsirai.
• The meteorological extremity of the two events differed by region: Tropical Storm Ana's 3-day average rainfall was a 1-in-50-year event for Malawi and Mozambique, whereas Cyclone Batsirai's rainfall was a more frequent 1-in-2-year event for Madagascar.
• Humanitarian impacts were intensified by pre-existing vulnerabilities, including prior flooding in all three countries, conflict in northern Mozambique, and a prolonged drought and food insecurity in southern Madagascar.
• Despite accurate forecasting and tracking by Météo Madagascar and the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, the effectiveness of warnings was hindered by damage to electrical grids and communication structures.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2022). Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-rainfall-associated-with-tropical-cyclones-hitting-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-madagascar-mozambique-malawi/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi. 2022. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-rainfall-associated-with-tropical-cyclones-hitting-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-madagascar-mozambique-malawi/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi |date=11 April 2022 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-rainfall-associated-with-tropical-cyclones-hitting-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-madagascar-mozambique-malawi/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2022climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2022}, month = apr, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-rainfall-associated-with-tropical-cyclones-hitting-highly-vulnerable-communities-in-madagascar-mozambique-malawi/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }