Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040

The health systems of the Horn of Africa are severely strained by conflict, insecurity, and drought, leading to high rates of malnutrition and maternal and child mortality. While life expectancy has generally increased, the region struggles to meet SDG targets, with a dual burden of persistent communicable diseases and steady rates of non-communicable diseases and injuries.

• Child mortality rates in the Horn of Africa have decreased, but the region is not on track to meet the 2030 SDG target for eliminating child deaths, and the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to reverse existing gains.
• Malnutrition is a critical driver of child mortality across the region. In Djibouti, 35% of children's deaths before age five are linked to malnutrition, while in Ethiopia, 28% of child deaths are associated with undernutrition.
• Severe food insecurity and malnutrition are persistent in South Sudan and Sudan. In South Sudan, malnutrition increased to 16% in 2019, exceeding the 15% emergency threshold. Sudan is among 14 countries containing 80% of the world's stunted children.
• Maternal mortality rates (MMR) remain high and are not on track to meet the SDG target of fewer than 70 per 100,000 live births. Somalia and South Sudan report particularly high rates, with 2018 estimates for Somalia at 732 and 2017 estimates for South Sudan at 1,250 per 100,000 live births.
• Average life expectancy for the six countries was 65.9 years in 2020, showing a 16-year increase since 1990. However, by 2040, Somalia and South Sudan are projected to have a life expectancy of around 65, which is approximately six percentage points below the regional and continental averages.
• The region faces a dual health burden: while communicable diseases like diarrhoea and tuberculosis are projected to decline gradually, non-communicable diseases and deaths from injuries (such as road accidents and conflict) are expected to remain steady.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2023). Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=07-health

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=07-health.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=15 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=07-health |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=region/horn-of-africa&topic=07-health}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }