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This policy brief, published by the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) in July 2015, examines the relationship between the ambition level of the 2015 global climate agreement and the ability of countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Based on research by HR Wallingford and Metroeconomica, the brief argues that a high-ambition agreement—limiting global warming to 2°C—is essential for eradicating extreme poverty and ensuring sustainable development, whereas a low-ambition agreement would significantly undermine these goals, particularly in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.

This report examines how the outcome of the 2015 climate agreement negotiated at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) in Paris will affect the achievement of the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, comparing high-ambition and low-ambition scenarios.

This World Resources Institute working paper analyzes four scenarios to determine how developed countries can meet the 2009 Copenhagen commitment to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 for climate action in developing countries. The analysis projects that reaching the target will likely require a combination of public finance sources and leveraged private sector investment, while noting a persistent imbalance where mitigation finance far outweighs adaptation finance.

This research paper describes the application of a nexus toolkit, utilizing WEAP and LEAP, to evaluate the interdependencies and potential conflicts between agricultural transformation and energy transition in Ethiopia's Lake Tana Sub-basin.

This fact sheet provides an overview of the software tools, online platforms, and research activities developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to support climate change mitigation and adaptation. The document details specific tools for energy planning (LEAP), water resources planning (WEAP), consumption-based environmental impact accounting (REAP), and knowledge sharing for adaptation (weADAPT), while outlining SEI's strategic focus on capacity-building and the integration of these tools to address sustainable development challenges.

This policy brief from the Stockholm Environment Institute describes a four-step process for identifying and minimizing 'carbon lock-in'—the process where investments in carbon-intensive infrastructure make shifting to low-carbon pathways more difficult and expensive. The document demonstrates this approach on a global scale, highlighting the high risks associated with coal and gas power plants, private vehicle travel, and capital-intensive fossil fuel supply infrastructure, and provides guidance for applying the framework at national and regional levels.

This technical report by ECOFYS for the World Resources Institute analyzes the potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy to reduce the European Union's dependence on natural gas imports by 2030. It examines the buildings, industry, and energy supply sectors, comparing a business-as-usual scenario with the EU's 2030 framework and a more ambitious 'Energy Independence 2030' scenario.

This research paper evaluates the potential for the UK transport sector to reach a 'zero carbon' state by 2050, comparing a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario against a maximum impact (MI) scenario involving various behavioral, fiscal, spatial, and technological interventions.

This research paper examines the net emissions impact of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), focusing on whether it achieves a net decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions or merely shifts the location of reductions.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes potential electoral outcomes and political scenarios for South Africa for the period 2014 to 2029. It explores four primary pathways—'Bafana Bafana', 'The Future is ANC', 'The Rise of Multiparty Democracy', and 'A Nation Divided'—evaluating how factors such as ANC leadership, trade union splits (specifically NUMSA and COSATU), and youth voter apathy influence economic growth and poverty levels.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies presents three plausible scenarios for South Africa's economic and political trajectory up to 2030: 'Bafana Bafana' (continued underachievement), 'Mandela Magic' (high growth and vision), and 'Nation Divided' (political instability and populist decline). Using the International Futures forecasting system, the author analyzes how leadership choices, particularly within the African National Congress (ANC) and its alliance with COSATU, will impact GDP, employment, and social stability.

The 'Bioenergy technology roadmap for Colombia' (2014) provides a strategic vision and quantitative analysis for deploying sustainable biofuel and biomass technologies in Colombia through 2030. The report evaluates two primary visions: one focusing on new technologies (biomethane and biomass-based power/CHP) and another combining these with the expansion of first-generation liquid biofuels. Using an Energy System Model (ESM) and a Land Use and Trade Model (LUTM), the report quantifies impacts on energy demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and land requirements, concluding that power generation and CHP applications are the most effective for emission reductions.

This discussion brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute describes the application of a water-energy-food nexus framework in Ningxia, China. It examines the interdependencies and potential conflicts between the province's development targets and its natural resource constraints, specifically regarding water scarcity, land-use changes, and a heavy reliance on coal for energy production.

This policy brief describes a project by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) using a 'nexus approach' to analyze the interdependencies between water, energy, and food in Ethiopia's Upper Blue Nile region. By applying the WEAP-LEAP toolkit to the Lake Tana and Beles River basins, the project compared three development scenarios—Business-as-usual, National plans, and a Nexus scenario—to identify trade-offs between agricultural expansion, hydropower generation, and environmental sustainability.

This research paper presents a long-term scenario for deep greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement in Seattle, Washington, focusing on a 'core' emissions framework and bottom-up scenario analysis to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

This research paper evaluates the impact of climate change and adaptive management on irrigation water supply within the Cache Creek watershed in Yolo County, California, using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system calibrated with 1971–2000 historical data.

This text provides an overview of Chapter 16, 'Scenarios and Sustainability Transformation,' from the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Global Environmental Outlook (GEO)-5. The chapter utilizes goals and thresholds from international agreements and publications to identify unsustainable trends and proposes necessary measures for a sustainability transformation.

This policy brief describes a study using a global-to-local modelling approach to analyze the interactions between socio-economic development, land use, food security, and climate change in Vietnam for the period 2010-2030. The study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model combined with a spatial land use model to project outcomes under three scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), High Climate Impact (HCI), and High Economic Growth (HEG).

This research paper evaluates the impact of mitigation and adaptation strategies on coastal flooding during the 21st century using the DIVA and IMAGE models, focusing on sea-level rise and dike maintenance.

This research paper evaluates the potential of biofuels to help the UK meet emission reduction targets set in the Low Carbon Transition Plan (LCTP) and EU obligations, using a hybrid life-cycle assessment across four scenarios.