Development pathways for the DRC to 2050

The report analyzes the DRC's development challenges, including endemic corruption, high fertility rates, and severe infrastructure deficits. It argues that while the country possesses immense mineral and agricultural wealth, it suffers from the 'paradox of plenty.' The analysis suggests that a comprehensive strategy combining improved governance, human capital investment, agricultural intensification, and economic diversification could significantly reduce extreme poverty and increase GDP by 2050 compared to the current trajectory.

• The DRC exhibits a 'paradox of plenty,' where immense natural resources coexist with extreme poverty and low development indicators. More than 70% of the population lives in extreme poverty, and the country ranks 179th of 189 countries on the Human Development Index.
• Governance is characterized by systemic corruption and rent-seeking elites who prioritize personal and ethnic allegiances over sustainable development. The state has historically failed to implement decentralization, with the central government transferring only 6%–7% of taxes to provinces between 2007 and 2013, despite a constitutional requirement of 40%.
• High fertility rates—third globally at 5.9 children per woman in 2019—and rapid population growth are significant obstacles to human development. The population is projected to double by 2045, and the DRC is expected to become the second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria by 2050.
• The country faces a critical infrastructure deficit, particularly in electricity and transport. Only 21% of the population had electricity access in 2019, and only 2% of the total road network is paved. This deficit impedes productivity and the physical integration of the state.
• The economy is overly dependent on the extractive sector, specifically copper and cobalt, making it highly vulnerable to global commodity price shocks. In 2018, mining and hydrocarbons accounted for 99.1% of total exports, while agricultural products represented only 0.8%.
• Despite having the largest available farmland in Africa (80 million hectares), the DRC suffers from widespread food insecurity and malnutrition. 43% of children under five suffer from chronic malnutrition, and the country remains a net food importer with a food trade deficit of US$1.5 billion per year.
• The 'Current Path' forecast predicts that the DRC will fail to meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for extreme poverty, with approximately 69% of the population still living on less than US$1.90 per day by 2030.
• A 'comprehensive scenario' combining improved governance, infrastructure, human capital, and agricultural development could drastically alter the country's trajectory. By 2050, this combined approach could reduce the poverty rate to 9.6% (compared to 34.5% on the Current Path) and increase GDP by US$339 billion.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2023). Development pathways for the DRC to 2050. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/drc/

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. Development pathways for the DRC to 2050. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/drc/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=Development pathways for the DRC to 2050 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=7 June 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/drc/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2023development, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{Development pathways for the DRC to 2050}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/drc/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }