The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Tunisia's development trajectory toward 2040. It examines the country's current economic stagnation, demographic shifts, and vulnerabilities to climate change, while proposing three alternative policy pathways—Going for Growth, Leapfrogging, and Sustainability & Equality—to unlock the nation's human capital and improve governance.

• Tunisia's economic growth is stagnant due to poor governance, low investment, and a large, low-productivity informal sector. While GDP grew by nearly 4.5% annually between 2000 and 2010, the rate dropped to 2% between 2010 and 2018.
• The country faces a significant demographic transition, with the total fertility rate projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 children in the early 2020s. This will lead to a shrinking working-age population and an increasing elderly population, raising health costs for non-communicable diseases.
• Tunisia is highly vulnerable to international food price shocks due to its heavy dependence on food imports. In 2019, food dependence exceeded 55% of consumption, and the country's food security is expected to remain vulnerable through 2040.
• The Tunisian economy is characterized by a large shadow economy, estimated at 38% of GDP in 2013, which includes significant illicit activity such as fuel smuggling from Algeria. This informality is driven by bureaucracy, nepotism, and corruption.
• Despite high levels of education and literacy, Tunisia suffers from a mismatch between skills and the labor market. Unemployment is particularly high among graduates (roughly 30%) and women (roughly 25%).
• Climate change poses severe risks to Tunisia, including sea-level rise, droughts, and increased temperatures. Annual maximum temperatures are projected to increase by 1.9–3.8 °C by 2050, threatening infrastructure and reducing agricultural output.
• Government subsidies, particularly for energy, are inefficient and disproportionately benefit the wealthy. The richest 20% of Tunisians consume 28% of all subsidies, while the lowest 20% receive only 14%.
• The 'Going for Growth' scenario prioritizes FDI and industrial production, potentially increasing GDP by €27 billion by 2040 relative to the current path, but it may increase carbon emissions by over 16%.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario focuses on ICT and R&D to bypass traditional development stages, potentially increasing GDP by a cumulative total of about €79 billion by 2040.
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario emphasizes environmental stability and targeted social protection, reducing agricultural import dependence from 22% to roughly 3% by 2040 and reducing carbon emissions by almost 8%.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }