The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

Tunisia faces stagnant economic growth, high youth unemployment, and a large informal sector despite strong human capital. The report identifies a 'Current Path' of slow growth and vulnerability to food price shocks and climate change, while proposing three alternative scenarios. These scenarios emphasize that improving governance, reducing inefficient subsidies, and enhancing education quality are foundational to any successful transition. The 'Sustainability & Equality' pathway is highlighted as the most effective for reducing extreme poverty and carbon emissions, while 'Going for Growth' offers the highest GDP increase through FDI and industrial promotion.

• Tunisia's economic growth is stagnant due to poor governance, low investment, and a large, low-productivity informal sector. The informal economy is estimated to have been 38% of GDP in 2013, and 60% of graduates end up in the informal sector or unemployed.
• The country is highly vulnerable to international food price shocks due to a heavy dependence on food imports, with food dependence exceeding 55% of consumption in 2019.
• Tunisia is experiencing a rapid demographic transition; the total fertility rate is projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 children in the early 2020s, leading to an ageing population and increased health costs for non-communicable diseases by 2040.
• Climate change poses significant risks, including sea-level rise for the 84% of the population living along the coast, and projected temperature increases of 1.9–3.8 °C by 2050.
• Government subsidies, particularly in energy, are inefficient and exacerbate inequality, with the richest 20% of Tunisians consuming 28% of all subsidies while the lowest 20% receive only 14%.
• Despite high enrolment and literacy rates, the education system suffers from declining quality, with 72% of children aged 7–14 lacking foundational math skills in 2018.
• The 'Going for Growth' scenario could increase GDP by €27 billion in 2040 relative to the Current Path by prioritising FDI, industrial production, and government effectiveness.
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario is the most effective for poverty reduction, reducing extreme poverty (at the US$3.20 threshold) to about 2.8% of the population by 2040.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario focuses on human capital and ICT potential, potentially increasing per capita income by roughly US$1,000 relative to the Current Path over the next 20 years.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2023). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2023. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=12 May 2023 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2023rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2023}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/country/tunisia/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }