SADC Futures of Green Industrialisation: A Call for an Alternative Paradigm?

The document critiques current green industrialisation (GI) strategies in the SADC region for remaining tethered to linear economic growth models and 'greenwashing'. It proposes a 'regenerative' alternative based on principles of holism, biomimicry, and African indigenous philosophies like Ubuntu and Ukama. Through scenario analysis, the authors present three possible futures: a business-as-usual scenario (Scenario A), a dystopian 'Apocalyptic Africa' (Scenario B) marked by extreme climate disasters and resource wars, and a 'Regenerative Revival' (Scenario C). The brief concludes that SADC must move beyond surface-level policy changes to shift deeper mental models and paradigms, recommending the use of strategic foresight, the empowerment of youth, and a 'bottom-in' approach to reach marginalised populations.

• Current green industrialisation strategies in SADC are largely insufficient because they remain oriented toward linear economic growth models and lack transformative regenerative approaches.
• The region faces a risk of 'green neo-colonialism' or a 'green scramble for Africa,' where global powers like China and Europe extract critical minerals for their own decarbonisation needs without benefiting local sustainable development.
• A worst-case scenario for the region involves extreme climate disruptions, including temperatures exceeding 40°C for many weeks, leading to famine, state failure, and the rise of climate refugees.
• African indigenous knowledge systems (IKS), specifically the concepts of Ubuntu (interdependent human relationships) and Ukama (holistic relationships between humanity, environment, and ancestors), provide a viable foundation for regenerative economics.
• SADC's ability to transition to a regenerative economy is threatened by poor governance, inconsistent economic growth, and a mismatch between the skills of its large youth population and job market demands.
• To achieve transformative change, SADC should adopt a dual approach: 'top-out' proactive engagement with global powers to leverage its natural resources, and 'bottom-in' strategies targeting marginalised regions to ensure resilience.

APA

LICHTY, S., & CLOETE, D. (2023). SADC Futures of Green Industrialisation: A Call for an Alternative Paradigm? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_145_SADCGreenIndustrialisation.pdf

Chicago

LICHTY, STEVEN, and DEON CLOETE. SADC Futures of Green Industrialisation: A Call for an Alternative Paradigm? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_145_SADCGreenIndustrialisation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=LICHTY |first1=STEVEN |last2=CLOETE |first2=DEON |title=SADC Futures of Green Industrialisation: A Call for an Alternative Paradigm? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=June 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_145_SADCGreenIndustrialisation.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{lichty2023sadc, author = {LICHTY, STEVEN and CLOETE, DEON}, title = {{SADC Futures of Green Industrialisation: A Call for an Alternative Paradigm?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/SAIIA_PI_145_SADCGreenIndustrialisation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }