Ember response to the ENTSO-E / ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 storylines consultation

Ember critiques the TYNDP 2024 storylines for having low electrification levels and unrealistic fossil fuel price projections. The organization argues that the 'Green Ambition' (GA) and 'Distributed Energy' (DE) scenarios are not fully self-consistent and fail to align with 1.5C pathways. Ember recommends introducing a higher-ambition scenario with at least 90% emissions reduction by 2040 and urges the removal of fossil methane from heating and transport by 2050.

• The electrification levels in the DE and GA scenarios are too low to be consistent with 1.5C aligned pathways. Specifically, the GA scenario's 2040 direct electrification projection of 39% is below the 42% minimum identified by the ESABCC as feasible for a global 1.5C carbon budget.
• Fossil fuel price projections in the draft TYNDP 2024 storylines are significantly underestimated. Ember notes that European Commission price projections are more than double those proposed in the draft, with Commission figures for natural gas at €11.30-11.80/GJ compared to the TYNDP's €6.3-5/GJ.
• The scenarios maintain an unjustifiably high reliance on methane through 2050, particularly in buildings and transport. Ember argues that methane still providing 12% of energy demand for space heating in 2050 is 'incomprehensible' given the maturity of electric heat pumps.
• Renewable energy trajectories for several countries have decreased compared to the TYNDP 2022 results, contradicting the stated methodology of using published studies. For example, maximum wind and solar deployment in Portugal dropped from 66 GW in TYNDP 2022 to 25 GW in TYNDP 2024.
• The projected development of new nuclear capacity is viewed as unrealistic, especially in the GA scenario which implies 117 GW of new capacity by 2050. Ember asserts that the cost-optimal pathway for decarbonising Europe's power system in the 2030s requires no new nuclear investment.
• The carbon budget methodology is criticized for lacking strict enforcement and for extrapolating the budget to 2100. Ember argues that relying on negative emissions to recover overshoot post-2050 creates significant risks and impacts infrastructure planning pre-2050.

APA

Ember (2023). Ember response to the ENTSO-E / ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 storylines consultation. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Ember-response-to-the-ENTSO-E-ENTSOG-TYNDP-2024-storylines-consultation.pdf

Chicago

Ember. Ember response to the ENTSO-E / ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 storylines consultation. 2023. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Ember-response-to-the-ENTSO-E-ENTSOG-TYNDP-2024-storylines-consultation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Ember |title=Ember response to the ENTSO-E / ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 storylines consultation |date=14 August 2023 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Ember-response-to-the-ENTSO-E-ENTSOG-TYNDP-2024-storylines-consultation.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ember2023ember, author = {{Ember}}, title = {{Ember response to the ENTSO-E / ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 storylines consultation}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2023}, month = aug, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/10/Ember-response-to-the-ENTSO-E-ENTSOG-TYNDP-2024-storylines-consultation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }