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Natural Infrastructure and Prairie Prosperity
The report assesses the economic impact of natural infrastructure in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, estimating that the sector supported over 58,500 jobs and contributed CAD 7 billion to GDP in 2022. It projects that additional annual investments of CAD 40 million to CAD 100 million could increase direct employment by 18% to 26% and direct GDP by 10% to 16% by 2030, enhancing climate resilience against floods and droughts.
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Document type: Report
Natural Infrastructure and Prairie Prosperity
The report establishes a statistical framework for the natural infrastructure sector in the Canadian Prairies, dividing it into watershed management, municipal natural infrastructure, education/training, and regulatory/public administration. Using 2022 as a baseline, it projects that a 'Stretch Growth' scenario involving CAD 100 million annual investment would increase total jobs in the region to 73,420 and total GDP to CAD 8.2 billion by 2030.
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Document type: Report
2050 Long-term Emission Reduction and Climate Resilient Strategy for Jamaica
Jamaica aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 73% below 2020 levels by 2050 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. The strategy focuses on deep decarbonisation of the electricity, transport, and industry sectors, alongside comprehensive adaptation measures for tourism, infrastructure, and agriculture. Implementation requires an estimated USD 6 billion (USD 5 billion for mitigation and USD 1 billion for adaptation) and a just transition for the workforce.
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Document type: Report
Accelerating Clean Energy Ambition
The document details the technical methodology used by the Union of Concerned Scientists to model US energy system transitions. It outlines targets for reducing energy and industrial CO2 emissions by 47.5% by 2030 and 100% by 2050, alongside specific targets for non-CO2 gases. The analysis employs seven scenarios, including reference cases and various net-zero pathways, incorporating the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Key assumptions include the total retirement of coal generation by 2030 in net-zero scenarios and 100% zero emissions vehicle sales by 2035.
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Document type: Report
Accelerating Clean Energy Ambition
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) analysis finds that while the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) accelerate emissions reductions, additional policies are required to meet US climate targets. Achieving net-zero by 2050 requires a rapid phaseout of fossil fuels, a massive scale-up of wind, solar, and energy storage, and expanded electrification and energy efficiency. The report argues that the health and climate benefits of this transition—including avoided premature deaths and reduced climate-caused damage—significantly outweigh the energy system costs.
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Document type: Executive summary
human-caused methane emission must decrease driven by cuts in the fossil fuel industry
The document asserts that reducing anthropogenic methane emissions by 40% by 2030 is essential to avoid 0.3°C of warming by 2050. It highlights that the energy sector, specifically fossil fuels, is the primary source of these emissions and possesses the most affordable opportunities for reduction. According to the IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario, fossil fuel methane emissions can decrease by 75% by 2030, with one-third of this reduction coming from production cuts and the remainder from operational mitigation like leak detection and ending non-emergency flaring. The author calls on financial institutions to make funding contingent on companies adopting ambitious methane reduction plans.
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Document type: Statement
Global Fossil Fuel Reduction Pathways
The study analyzes IPCC Sixth Assessment Report mitigation scenarios to determine the speed and trajectory of fossil fuel reductions necessary to limit warming to 2 °C or below. It finds that pathways allowing for higher gas emissions rely heavily on carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which may be unrealistic due to poor model representation of storage capacity and technology diffusion. Consequently, the authors argue for the establishment of clear production and use benchmarks for coal, oil, and gas.
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Document type: Research paper
Transport policies and air pollution in Kenya
The study developed a detailed inventory model for eleven pollutants in Kenya's road transport sector, which accounts for 93% of all freight and passenger traffic. Projections indicate that emissions could increase exponentially by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. The authors identify improving fuel economy, vehicle standards, fuel sources, and public transport investment as the most effective strategies for improving air quality and meeting climate goals.
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Document type: Research paper
Ember response to the ENTSO-E / ENTSOG TYNDP 2024 storylines consultation
Ember critiques the TYNDP 2024 storylines for having low electrification levels and unrealistic fossil fuel price projections. The organization argues that the 'Green Ambition' (GA) and 'Distributed Energy' (DE) scenarios are not fully self-consistent and fail to align with 1.5C pathways. Ember recommends introducing a higher-ambition scenario with at least 90% emissions reduction by 2040 and urges the removal of fossil methane from heating and transport by 2050.
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Document type: Report
Lessons from Oil and Gas Transitions in the North Sea
The report examines the transition of North Sea oil and gas producers toward net-zero or complete phase-out scenarios. It identifies government as the primary actor responsible for managing these transitions and emphasizes the need for participatory governance to overcome industry resistance. The analysis highlights that while the three countries share a geography, their different levels of economic dependency on fossil fuels lead to divergent transition stages and enabling conditions.
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Document type: Report
Unlocking Europe’s CO2 Storage Potential
The report assesses Europe's geological CO2 storage potential, estimating theoretical capacity between 262 and 1520 GtCO2. It compares 'Domestic' (widespread) and 'Export' (limited basins) storage scenarios against 'Prioritised' and 'Technical Potential' demand scenarios. While Europe has sufficient long-term theoretical capacity, current announced projects are insufficient for 2035 demand. The study highlights that widespread domestic storage significantly reduces transport CAPEX compared to export-heavy models, though some countries like Finland and Estonia lack suitable sedimentary basins.
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Document type: Report
Sustainable Asset Valuation of a Bus Rapid Transit System in Bandung, Indonesia
The SAVi assessment of a proposed 27.4 km BRT system in Bandung, Indonesia, demonstrates that the project is highly profitable from macroeconomic and societal perspectives, despite being economically unviable under conventional financial analysis. While a traditional benefit-cost ratio (BCR) is low (0.27 to 0.28), the sustainable BCR (S-BCR), which includes non-tangible social and environmental benefits, ranges from 6.67 to 7.67. The largest benefits are derived from the value of time saved and increased retail revenues. The report concludes that the project's societal benefits significantly outweigh its investment costs, providing a strong case for sustainable mobility investment in the city.
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Document type: Report
SADC Futures of Green Infrastructure: Visionary Scenarios and Transformative Pathways to Regeneration
The document analyzes the historical 'lock-in' of SADC's infrastructure, which has been driven by colonial mercantile systems and extractive economic imperatives. It contends that current infrastructure is elitist and ecologically unsustainable, failing to meet the needs of the region's growing population. To counter this, the authors propose a 'regenerative' approach based on circular economies and human wellbeing. The paper presents three visionary scenarios—one driven by political response to climate migration, one by bottom-up civic innovation, and one by ESG-led market incentives—to illustrate potential pathways toward sustainable development. It concludes with recommendations for policy reform, including the creation of a Green Infrastructure Task Team and the adoption of community-based public-private partnerships (C-PPPs).
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Document type: Research paper
Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040
The report identifies poor governance, hydrocarbon dependence, and an unsustainable subsidy system as primary barriers to Algeria's growth. It projects a modest GDP growth rate of 1.8% between 2020 and 2040 under the 'Current Path' but proposes an 'Algerian Dream' scenario based on four reform pillars: improved governance, economic transformation, investment in the knowledge economy, and a transition to sustainable agriculture and renewable energy.
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Document type: Report
Development prospects for the Horn of Africa countries to 2040
The Horn of Africa faces severe challenges including governance failure, chronic food insecurity, and high poverty rates, with no countries on track to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030. The region is characterized by a very young population and high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by climate change and conflict. While Ethiopia and Sudan dominate the regional GDP, most nations suffer from poor infrastructure and dysfunctional health and education systems. The report models an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario involving improvements in governance, agriculture, and human capital, which could significantly increase regional GDP and reduce extreme poverty by 2040.
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Document type: Report
Development pathways for the DRC to 2050
The report analyzes the DRC's development challenges, including endemic corruption, high fertility rates, and severe infrastructure deficits. It argues that while the country possesses immense mineral and agricultural wealth, it suffers from the 'paradox of plenty.' The analysis suggests that a comprehensive strategy combining improved governance, human capital investment, agricultural intensification, and economic diversification could significantly reduce extreme poverty and increase GDP by 2050 compared to the current trajectory.
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Document type: Report
Unlocking Europe’s CO2 Storage Potential
The report assesses Europe's theoretical CO2 storage capacity, estimating it between 262 and 1520 GtCO2, and matches this against industrial and non-industrial CCS demand scenarios for 2035 and 2050. It compares 'Export' scenarios (limited key basins) with 'Domestic' scenarios (widespread storage), finding that while Europe has sufficient long-term theoretical capacity, current announced projects are insufficient for 2035 demand. The analysis highlights that widespread domestic storage could halve transport CAPEX costs compared to export-heavy models, though certain regions like Northern Italy, the German North Sea, and Switzerland may face capacity constraints under high-demand scenarios.
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Document type: Report
SADC Futures of Green Industrialisation: A Call for an Alternative Paradigm?
The document critiques current green industrialisation (GI) strategies in the SADC region for remaining tethered to linear economic growth models and 'greenwashing'. It proposes a 'regenerative' alternative based on principles of holism, biomimicry, and African indigenous philosophies like Ubuntu and Ukama. Through scenario analysis, the authors present three possible futures: a business-as-usual scenario (Scenario A), a dystopian 'Apocalyptic Africa' (Scenario B) marked by extreme climate disasters and resource wars, and a 'Regenerative Revival' (Scenario C). The brief concludes that SADC must move beyond surface-level policy changes to shift deeper mental models and paradigms, recommending the use of strategic foresight, the empowerment of youth, and a 'bottom-in' approach to reach marginalised populations.
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Document type: Policy brief
New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon
The report argues that a 'New Economy for the Brazilian Amazon' (NEA), characterized by zero deforestation and a robust bioeconomy, would provide the most equitable economic growth for Brazil. By 2050, this transition could increase the regional GDP by BRL 40 billion and create 312,000 additional jobs compared to a reference scenario. The study emphasizes that eliminating deforestation alone is insufficient to meet Paris Agreement targets; it must be coupled with the decarbonization of agriculture, livestock, and the energy matrix. The transition requires an estimated BRL 2.56 trillion in additional investment by 2050, representing 1.8% of Brazil's national GDP per year. Key recommendations include removing fossil fuel subsidies, redirecting rural credit toward low-carbon practices, and scaling a bioeconomy based on traditional indigenous knowledge and standing forests.
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Document type: Executive summary
The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040
Tunisia faces stagnant economic growth, high youth unemployment, and a large informal sector despite strong human capital. The report identifies a 'Current Path' of slow growth and vulnerability to food price shocks and climate change, while proposing three alternative scenarios. These scenarios emphasize that improving governance, reducing inefficient subsidies, and enhancing education quality are foundational to any successful transition. The 'Sustainability & Equality' pathway is highlighted as the most effective for reducing extreme poverty and carbon emissions, while 'Going for Growth' offers the highest GDP increase through FDI and industrial promotion.
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Document type: Report