Search Climate Insights Directory

This research paper analyzes the structural decline of Official Development Assistance (ODA) and the systemic failures in allocating climate finance toward adaptation and resilience between 2024 and 2026. It argues that the primary constraint is not a lack of information or foresight, but an institutional 'decision gap' that prevents organizations from translating risk analysis into operational preparedness.

This research paper introduces the 'Combined scenario' for Africa, a vision aligned with the African Union's Agenda 2063. It outlines the continent's need to navigate simultaneous demographic, digital, urban, and green transitions while balancing energy access expansion with low-carbon requirements and managing fiscal constraints caused by debt and geopolitical fragmentation.

This research design document outlines the multi-method approach used by the Institute for Security Studies to assess state governance trends and future trajectories in the Global South. The methodology integrates World Bank governance indicators, expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze how geopolitical, economic, and social forces influence the role of the state.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the future of state governance in the Global South over the next two decades. It examines how demographic shifts, climate change, digital revolutions, and geopolitical multipolarity redefine state legitimacy and function. The study utilizes World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and strategic foresight to propose four global scenarios—Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War—and four state archetypes—Negotiator, System Builder, Fractured, and Collapsed—to help policymakers build institutional resilience.

This report by Ember analyzes Mexico's technical and economic potential to transition its electricity sector toward solar power and battery storage to reduce dependence on imported US gas. It argues that while Mexico possesses world-class solar resources capable of meeting the vast majority of its electricity demand, high local installation costs and regulatory barriers currently hinder this potential.

The report describes a 'Futures Dialogue' held in April 2025 between South Africa and the Netherlands to integrate strategic foresight into climate and energy diplomacy. The event aimed to move beyond traditional, transactional diplomatic frameworks to address systemic crises through methods like scenario planning and Causal Layered Analysis, focusing on green industrialisation, transformative finance, and shifting narratives of African agency.

The Madagascar Integrated Energy Access Planning (IEP) Cold Chains Report provides a comprehensive geospatial and technical analysis of the medical and agricultural cold chains in Madagascar. It identifies critical gaps in electricity access and road infrastructure that hinder the distribution of vaccines and the preservation of perishable agricultural products. The report proposes electrification and equipment strategies to achieve universal healthcare facility electrification by 2030 and to reduce post-harvest losses in the potato, tomato, fisheries, and dairy value chains.

This policy brief summarizes a UNEP foresight workshop held in Bangkok in December 2023, where 42 academics and practitioners from 15 countries in Asia and the Pacific discussed plausible future scenarios for the region leading up to 2050. The discussions focused on the interplay between human activities and the environment, specifically examining the roles of technology, cultural values, and power relations in shaping planetary health and human well-being.

This document is an annex to a special report titled "The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040," published by the Institute for Security Studies. It details the data sources, adjustments, and specific parameters used in the IFs (International Futures) forecasting model to create three development scenarios for Tunisia: "Common interventions," "Going for Growth," and "Leapfrogging," as well as a "Sustainability & Equality" framework.

This report by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) uses 'futures thinking' and scenario-building to explore the potential adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region over a 5- to 15-year period. It identifies key driving forces—such as rapid urbanization and falling renewable energy costs—and examines the tensions between inclusive and exclusive transitions and the role of proactive versus reactive government policy.

This policy briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs argues that the electric vehicle (EV) revolution presents Southern African states with an opportunity to transform their economic trajectories through a systemic innovation approach. It advocates for a 'just e-volution' that integrates the mining, automotive, and energy sectors to move toward a low-carbon economy, specifically suggesting a 'Green New Deal' for the SADC region to avoid becoming a dumping ground for obsolete internal combustion engine technology.

This case study examines the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus in the Cumbaza River watershed and the city of Tarapoto in San Martín, Peru. It analyzes how urbanization, deforestation, and climate change impact resource security and proposes a systems-based approach to strengthen climate resilience through green infrastructure and improved governance.

This report documents a series of workshops organized by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) at the United Nations Internet Governance Forum (IGF) between 2008 and 2011. The workshops focused on the intersection of Internet policy, governance, and sustainable development, exploring how technical and policy decisions regarding the Internet impact social, economic, and environmental goals.

This January 2012 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides an analysis of the African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC) activities, focusing on political transitions in Egypt, the security situation in Somalia, and the internal functioning of AU mechanisms for democracy and military coordination.

This February 2011 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analysis and country updates for the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC). It focuses on the political instability in Tunisia following the ousting of President Ben Ali, the security and minority rights challenges surrounding the South Sudan referendum, the electoral stalemate and potential for civil war in Côte d’Ivoire, and the long-standing territorial dispute over Western Sahara. Additionally, it discusses the AU's focus on 'shared values' as a foundation for continental integration.

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) details a scenario-planning exercise conducted in May 2010 to explore the future of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The authors identify key certainties and uncertainties—such as the impact of the global financial crisis and Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations—to project four potential futures for the organization, ranging from deeper integration to total collapse.

This report details a March 2009 pilot workshop in Vancouver, British Columbia, hosted by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and supported by Industry Canada. The session engaged 32 diverse Canadian stakeholders to explore the future of the Internet and its implications for sustainability, social cohesion, and governance. The workshop used four scenarios—Government-regulated, Unregulated market, VIPnet, and Internet commons—to identify critical uncertainties and formulate policy recommendations for the Canadian government.

This research paper by Mark Halle examines the failures of the current multilateral trading system and proposes how it could be restructured to support a 'Great Transition' toward sustainable development. The author argues that while the fundamental principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO) are sound, the system has become a 'one size fits all' model that primarily benefits rich nations and ignores social and environmental goals. The paper explores three future archetypes—Agoria, Ecodemia, and Arcadia—demonstrating that a rules-based trading system can be adapted to serve any of these diverse socio-economic models if trade is treated as a tool for sustainable development rather than an end in itself.

This research paper, published by the South African Institute of International Affairs in 2006, analyzes South Africa's position as a regional hub and its role in global structural policy. It examines the country's economic integration, socio-economic challenges, environmental policies, and its evolving approach to global governance and trade, specifically focusing on its relations with Germany and other developing nations.

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) proposes a strategic framework to transition Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) skills toward a green hydrogen economy in South Africa by 2050. Using foresight tools like the Three Horizons framework and scenario planning, the document identifies systemic failures in the current TVET system and outlines a vision for a 'just and inclusive' ecosystem that prioritizes economic wellbeing and ecological resilience over a narrow focus on job placement.