Falling battery costs can unleash Mexico’s full solar potential and boost energy security

Mexico possesses world-leading solar resources that could technically supply 90% of its electricity when paired with battery storage. While reaching a 45% clean electricity target by 2030 could reduce US gas imports by 20%, a more ambitious 'solar superpower' scenario could eliminate these imports entirely. However, high local installation costs—38% higher for solar and nearly double for batteries compared to global averages—act as a significant barrier to this transition.

• Mexico's solar resources are among the best globally, with an average practical potential of nearly 4.9 kWh per 1 kWp installed per day, placing it in the global top 20. Simulations show that in sunny locations like Ciudad Juárez, Guadalupe, or León, a 100 MW industrial facility could be powered nearly round-the-clock using 600 MW of solar capacity and 1,700 MWh of battery storage, achieving constant supply for over 300 days a year.
• It is technically feasible for solar and batteries to meet 90% of Mexico's 2023 total electricity generation using 190 GW of solar capacity and 600 GWh of battery storage, resulting in only 6% excess supply. Meeting 100% of generation is possible with 260 GW of solar and 950 GWh of storage, though this increases excess supply to 23%.
• To achieve a 45% clean electricity share by 2030, Mexico would need to add 36 GW of solar capacity (reaching 47 GW total), which would reduce reliance on imported US gas by approximately 20% and save an estimated $1.6 billion USD annually in avoided imports.
• In a 'solar superpower' scenario, Mexico could eliminate all imported US gas from its power generation by 2030. This would require 165 GW of solar capacity and 500 GWh of battery storage, allowing solar to provide 58% of Mexico's annual electricity and raising the total clean electricity share to 82%.
• High local installation costs are a primary barrier; solar PV costs in Mexico were estimated at $1,050/kW in 2023, which is 38% higher than the global weighted average of $758/kW. Battery costs are nearly double the global average, with CFE data implying a cost of around $350/kWh compared to the 2024 global average of $165/kWh.
• The cost of building the 36 GW of solar and 30 GWh of battery storage needed for the 45% clean electricity target could be 50% more expensive in Mexico than the global average, representing an additional expense of $15 billion.

APA

Rangelova, K., Jones, D., & Suarez, W. (2025). Falling battery costs can unleash Mexico’s full solar potential and boost energy security. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/EN-Report-Falling-battery-costs-can-unleash-Mexicos-full-solar-potential-and-boost-energy-security.pdf

Chicago

Rangelova, Kostantsa, Dave Jones, and Wilmar Suarez. Falling battery costs can unleash Mexico’s full solar potential and boost energy security. Ember, 2025. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/EN-Report-Falling-battery-costs-can-unleash-Mexicos-full-solar-potential-and-boost-energy-security.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Rangelova |first1=Kostantsa |last2=Jones |first2=Dave |last3=Suarez |first3=Wilmar |title=Falling battery costs can unleash Mexico’s full solar potential and boost energy security |publisher=Ember |date=18 September 2025 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/EN-Report-Falling-battery-costs-can-unleash-Mexicos-full-solar-potential-and-boost-energy-security.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{rangelova2025falling, author = {Rangelova, Kostantsa and Jones, Dave and Suarez, Wilmar}, title = {{Falling battery costs can unleash Mexico’s full solar potential and boost energy security}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2025/09/EN-Report-Falling-battery-costs-can-unleash-Mexicos-full-solar-potential-and-boost-energy-security.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }