AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO

This research paper introduces the 'Combined scenario' for Africa, a vision aligned with the African Union's Agenda 2063. It outlines the continent's need to navigate simultaneous demographic, digital, urban, and green transitions while balancing energy access expansion with low-carbon requirements and managing fiscal constraints caused by debt and geopolitical fragmentation.

• Africa faces a complex set of simultaneous challenges, including the need to expand electricity access for hundreds of millions of people while adhering to low-carbon transition goals, alongside persistent connectivity gaps in digitalization.
• Fiscal space and policy autonomy in Africa are currently limited by volatile aid flows, mounting debt burdens, and increasing geopolitical fragmentation.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is identified as an ambitious initiative that could unlock growth and opportunity if it is fully implemented.
• The 'Combined scenario' serves as an integrated vision demonstrating how coordinated efforts across development sectors could transform Africa's trajectory by 2043, marking the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of Agenda 2063.
• While Africa's current energy levels are compared to those of China and the 'Asian Tigers' from several decades ago, the document suggests Africa can learn from their focus on human capital investment, poverty alleviation, and export-oriented manufacturing.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=01-introduction

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=01-introduction.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=01-introduction |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africa, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{AFRICA COMBINED SCENARIO}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=17-combined-agenda-2063&topic=01-introduction}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }