Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation

The report describes a 'Futures Dialogue' held in April 2025 between South Africa and the Netherlands to integrate strategic foresight into climate and energy diplomacy. The event aimed to move beyond traditional, transactional diplomatic frameworks to address systemic crises through methods like scenario planning and Causal Layered Analysis, focusing on green industrialisation, transformative finance, and shifting narratives of African agency.

• The Futures Dialogue utilized strategic foresight methods to move beyond traditional diplomacy, which is described as being bound by "rigid timelines, power asymmetries, and narrowly transactional processes and agendas". Specifically, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) was used to expose entrenched logics such as "aid dependency", "climate action as a burden", and "growth at all costs", reframing them into new metaphors like "mutual benefit" and "Africa as a renewable powerhouse".
• Using the Three Horizons Framework, participants mapped interventions across different timeframes: Horizon 1 focuses on immediate actions like "grid upgrades and small-scale renewable projects"; Horizon 2 involves transitional actions such as "blended finance instruments and regional trade facilitation"; and Horizon 3 targets preferred futures including "decentralised energy systems" and "AU-EU co-governance of climate-resilient infrastructure for climate change".
• The dialogue identified systemic innovations to recalibrate Africa-Europe relations, including a shift toward green industrialisation through "upstream beneficiation of critical minerals (e.g., platinum, manganese)" in South Africa and new R&D partnerships in the Netherlands. It also highlighted the need for transformative climate finance to replace loan-dominated mechanisms with innovations such as "debt-for-climate swaps, regional green bonds, and co-investment platforms".
• A primary recommendation from the dialogue is for the governments of South Africa and the Netherlands to institutionalise foresight within their foreign ministries by creating "anticipatory diplomacy" task teams to manage long-term risks and opportunities.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2025). Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation. 2025. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation |date=6 August 2025 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2025strategic, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }