Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation

The report details a 'Futures Dialogue' held in April 2025 between South Africa and the Netherlands, which used strategic foresight tools to reimagine Africa-Europe climate and energy relations. By employing methods like Causal Layered Analysis and the Three Horizons Framework, participants moved beyond traditional diplomatic scripts to address systemic issues such as extractive trade, energy poverty, and asymmetric finance. The dialogue identified pathways for green industrialisation, transformative climate finance, and a shift toward African leadership in climate governance, ultimately recommending that governments institutionalise 'anticipatory diplomacy' within their foreign ministries.

• Traditional diplomacy is viewed as inadequate for systemic crises because it is constrained by "rigid timelines, power asymmetries, and narrowly transactional processes and agendas". Strategic foresight provides a way to depoliticise topics and identify shared values and pathways.
• The dialogue used Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to expose and reframe harmful diplomatic narratives. It identified "Used Futures" characterized by "aid dependency", "climate action as a burden", and "growth at all costs", replacing them with new metaphors such as "mutual benefit", "climate as development catalyst" and "Africa as a renewable powerhouse".
• The Three Horizons Framework was applied to categorize interventions into three stages: Horizon 1 focuses on immediate needs like "grid upgrades and small-scale renewable projects"; Horizon 2 involves transitional actions such as "blended finance instruments and regional trade facilitation"; and Horizon 3 targets preferred futures including "decentralised energy systems" and "AU-EU co-governance of climate-resilient infrastructure".
• The dialogue identified three systemic innovations to recalibrate Africa-Europe relations: green industrialisation focusing on "upstream beneficiation of critical minerals" and local manufacturing; transformative climate finance to replace loan-dominated models with "debt-for-climate swaps, regional green bonds, and co-investment platforms"; and a shift toward "narrative sovereignty" where Africa is viewed as a global leader in climate innovation.
• The report recommends that governments institutionalise foresight within foreign ministries through "anticipatory diplomacy" task teams to better manage long-term risks and opportunities related to climate shocks and geopolitical volatility.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2025). Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation. 2025. https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation |date=6 August 2025 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2025strategic, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{Strategic Foresight is Reshaping Africa-Europe Climate and Energy Cooperation}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2025}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/futures-dialogue-insights-strategic-foresight-is-reshaping-africa-europe-climate-and-energy-cooperation/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }