What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma!

The document outlines the strategic outlook for the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), identifying critical drivers such as the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations and the stability of the revenue-sharing pool. It proposes four scenarios: 'Laduma!' (deepened integration), 'Own Goal' (fracture but continued financial support), 'Red Card' (collapse and financial withdrawal), and 'Wild Card' (deepened integration despite reduced financial transfers).

• The future of SACU is heavily influenced by several key certainties, including the dominance of the South African political landscape in regional decision-making and the enduring nature of economic inequalities between South Africa and the BLNS countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland).
• The global financial crisis has negatively impacted SACU by reducing the size of the revenue pool, which is a critical source of fiscal income for the BLNS countries; reports indicate the pool may have shrunk by as much as 40%.
• The 'Laduma!' scenario envisions a positive future where SACU evolves into a common market by 2015, driven by the successful conclusion of SADC–EU EPA negotiations and strong leadership from SACU heads of state.
• The 'Red Card' scenario describes a potential collapse of SACU where South Africa withdraws from the union and ceases revenue transfers to BLNS countries, leading to severe budgetary crises and the imposition of import tariffs on South African goods.
• The 'Own Goal' scenario suggests a future where SACU fractures due to the collapse of EPA negotiations, yet South Africa continues to provide financial support through a development fund to prevent the political and economic collapse of its neighbours.
• The 'Wild Card' scenario proposes that SACU could deepen its integration and develop regional value chains even if South Africa reduces its direct budget support, provided that BLNS countries identify alternative revenue sources and invest in regional infrastructure.
• Several factors could drive SACU toward collapse ('Red Card'), including South African political instability, the National Treasury's desire to reduce fiscal transfers, and the possibility of a fully functional SADC customs union making SACU redundant.

APA

Hichert, T., Draper, P., & Bertelsmann-Scott, T. (2010). What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf

Chicago

Hichert, Tanja, Peter Draper, and Talitha Bertelsmann-Scott. What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! South African Institute of International Affairs, 2010. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hichert |first1=Tanja |last2=Draper |first2=Peter |last3=Bertelsmann-Scott |first3=Talitha |title=What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2010 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hichert2010what, author = {Hichert, Tanja and Draper, Peter and Bertelsmann-Scott, Talitha}, title = {{What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma!}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2010}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }