What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma!

This research paper by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) details a scenario-planning exercise conducted in May 2010 to explore the future of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The authors identify key certainties and uncertainties—such as the impact of the global financial crisis and Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations—to project four potential futures for the organization, ranging from deeper integration to total collapse.

• The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) faces significant instability driven by a rift over Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations between Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland (BLS) on one side, and South Africa and Namibia on the other.
• The 2008–10 global financial crisis severely impacted the SACU revenue pool, which provides a critical portion of fiscal income for Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland (BLNS), with reports indicating the pool shrank by as much as 40%.
• South Africa's political and economic landscape dominates SACU decision-making, and internal political instability within the African National Congress (ANC) is identified as a strong driving force that could shape the union's future.
• The authors present four potential scenarios for SACU's future over a 10-year horizon: 'Laduma!' (deepening integration into a common market), 'Wild Card' (deepening integration despite reduced South African financial generosity), 'Own Goal' (fracture of the union while South Africa continues financial support), and 'Red Card' (total collapse of the union and cessation of South African financial transfers).
• The 'Red Card' scenario is described as a likely outcome if current trends persist, driven by the South African National Treasury's desire to reduce fiscal transfers to BLNS countries and South Africa's own industrial policy and protectionist interests.
• The success of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in implementing its own trade objectives or a customs union could render SACU obsolete and diminish its relevance.

APA

Hichert, T., Draper, P., & Bertelsmann-Scott, T. (2010). What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf

Chicago

Hichert, Tanja, Peter Draper, and Talitha Bertelsmann-Scott. What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! South African Institute of International Affairs, 2010. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hichert |first1=Tanja |last2=Draper |first2=Peter |last3=Bertelsmann-Scott |first3=Talitha |title=What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=July 2010 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hichert2010what, author = {Hichert, Tanja and Draper, Peter and Bertelsmann-Scott, Talitha}, title = {{What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma!}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2010}, month = jul, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Occasional-Paper-63.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }