Search Climate Insights Directory

The report identifies critical areas in the Philippines where nature-based solutions (NbS)—specifically the conservation and restoration of forests and coastal ecosystems—can mitigate climate risks like flooding, landslides, and coastal storms. Using biophysical modeling, the study finds that protecting or restoring a small percentage of land (13-19%) could benefit approximately half of the population and over half of the national road network. It argues for integrating these findings into 'upstream' strategic infrastructure planning to avoid high-value ecosystems and prioritize restoration, thereby reducing long-term maintenance costs and enhancing overall climate resilience.

The document examines the transition of energy-intensive heavy industries toward net-zero emissions, highlighting how global trade dynamics and national policies in developed economies impact emerging markets. It identifies four primary technological levers for decarbonization: energy efficiency, alternative fuel use/electrification, material efficiency, and carbon capture and storage. The author argues that while developing countries with abundant renewables can become new green industrial hubs, they face significant risks from carbon border measures, green protectionism, and reduced access to secondary materials. The briefing emphasizes the need for international coordination on standards, technology transfer, and finance to ensure a just transition for emerging and developing economies.

The report argues that the US can significantly reduce its reliance on newly mined minerals for electric vehicle (EV) batteries by prioritizing energy efficiency, right-sizing battery range, and implementing robust recycling policies. Through a 'Very Low Demand Scenario,' the authors demonstrate that newly mined lithium needs could be reduced by 48% from 2025 to 2050, saving 1.5 million metric tons of material. The analysis emphasizes that while electrification is essential for decarbonization, a systems-wide approach—including investments in public transit and rail to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT)—is necessary to create a sustainable and just supply chain.

The report details a scenario exercise conducted by the Council on Strategic Risks to explore how biodiversity loss in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) can trigger security crises. Using a hypothetical 2034 'Cichlid Collapse' as a starting point, the study identifies social resilience and economic stability as the primary drivers of future security outcomes. It presents four potential futures ranging from a virtuous cycle of cooperation to a 'death spiral' of widespread conflict and ecological collapse. The report argues that biodiversity loss exacerbates resource competition, governance fragility, and the influence of violent extremist organizations, recommending a 'whole of system' approach integrating defense, diplomacy, and development to mitigate these risks.

The report assesses the renewable energy requirements for decarbonizing the EU steel industry, which currently accounts for approximately 5% of the region's CO2 emissions. It evaluates two primary scenarios based on scrap usage (0% vs 50%) and two value chain routes (EU-based vs imported iron) to determine the necessary scale of renewable electricity and hydrogen production to meet a 55% carbon emission reduction target by 2030.

The document examines how the climate crisis and overfishing mutually exacerbate marine ecosystem degradation and how these factors disrupt global fisheries trade. It highlights that tropical developing regions are projected to suffer the most severe reductions in fish catches, while the Global North is better positioned to capture new economic opportunities. The author argues for a transition toward low-emission technologies, the removal of harmful subsidies, and the adoption of value-added processing and digital traceability to support developing countries in maintaining food security and economic stability.

The textile and garment sector is a major global emitter, with estimates ranging from 2% to 10% of annual global GHG emissions. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to both the physical impacts of climate change—risking millions of jobs in hubs like Bangladesh and Vietnam—and the transition risks posed by new sustainability regulations in consumer markets. The document highlights the potential for border carbon adjustments (BCAs) and the EU's Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) to create non-tariff trade barriers. It also addresses the environmental crisis of textile waste dumping in Africa and South America. To ensure a just transition, the author argues for the inclusion of the sector in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), increased international financial and technical support, and a coordinated approach via the WTO to prevent protectionism.

The report examines four decarbonization pathways for the Houston region—electrification, energy efficiency, hydrogen utilization, and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—across three scenarios: business-as-usual, selective investment, and net-zero. In the net-zero scenario, the region could achieve net zero carbon emissions from industry while creating over 21,000 jobs annually through 2050.

The report analyzes the employment opportunities arising from Jharkhand's energy transition, projecting significant job growth in green molecules, clean power, and clean mobility. It presents two scenarios: an Ambitious Policy Scenario (APS) and an Accelerated Green Transition Scenario (AGTS), estimating that by 2030, the state could create between 392,742 and 630,096 total direct and indirect green jobs. The document emphasizes the need for private investment and specialized skilling to transition a workforce currently heavily reliant on the solid fossil fuel mining sector.

The study argues that Germany's transport sector is failing to meet climate targets and that delaying transformative measures will lead to more disruptive and costly emission reductions in the future. It compares scenarios of immediate action versus delayed action, concluding that later implementation requires significantly higher rates of emission reduction after 2030 to achieve climate neutrality.

The document outlines a SAVi assessment for a proposed MRT system in Pampanga, Philippines, consisting of four bus rapid transit (BRT) lines and one light rail transit (LRT) line. It employs system dynamics modelling and causal loop diagrams to compare a 'no action' scenario against the MRT implementation, identifying potential co-benefits such as reduced CO2 emissions, decreased traffic congestion, and increased regional connectivity. The assessment provides a detailed set of assumptions and data sources for calculating capital costs, operational revenues, and avoided costs related to health, accidents, and fuel use.

The report evaluates how nature-related risks impact business profits and credit losses in five African banking systems. It finds that an 'orderly transition' aligned with the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) minimizes financial risks, whereas a 'disorderly transition' can lead to significant profit losses and increased credit losses, particularly in agriculture and mining. The analysis highlights that nature-related risks in these sectors are comparable in scale to climate-related risks in emissions-intensive sectors.

RMI conducted a pre-feasibility analysis on a coal power plant in Indonesia's Java-Bali region, evaluating four transition scenarios: baseline operation, early retirement without repurposing, early retirement with clean energy repurposing, and biomass co-firing. The analysis found that early retirement is financially feasible, especially with blended financing, and that clean repurposing via solar PV and battery storage offers the highest value and emissions reductions, provided land constraints are overcome. Conversely, biomass co-firing was found to be generally unprofitable due to high retrofit costs.

The report argues that battery minerals are not like oil because their demand can be managed through six key solutions: changing chemistries, increasing energy density, recycling, extending battery lifetimes, improving vehicle efficiency, and enhancing mobility efficiency. Under a 'continued trend' scenario, virgin demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt is projected to peak in the mid-2030s. Under an 'accelerated trend' scenario, net-zero mineral demand is achievable by 2050, turning mining into a one-off effort. The report highlights China's leadership in recycling and suggests that the Global South can leverage used vehicle imports to build its own recycling industries. Ultimately, the transition to a circular battery loop offers a path from oil dependence to circular energy independence.

The study analyzes land-system changes in the Gran Chaco from 1985 to 2015 and simulates futures up to 2045 across nine scenarios. It finds that the 'Agribusiness' narrative leads to the most severe social-ecological impacts, with 10% of the region already following this pathway. Potential hotspots for vegetation loss include western and southern Argentinian Chaco and western Paraguayan Chaco. The authors argue that stricter land-use and conservation planning are necessary to protect the region's biodiversity, carbon density, and forest-dependent communities.

India's heavy industries emit 920 million tonnes of CO2 annually, with steel and cement contributing 18% of total national emissions. The report argues that green electrification is a critical lever for decarbonisation, starting with the transition of current electricity demand to renewable energy sources (RES) by 2030 and moving toward deep electrification and power-to-fuel technologies by 2050. By 2030, meeting the projected 253 TWh industrial electricity demand with RES would require 120 GW of capacity and could avoid 180 Mt of CO2. In the long term, a 'Potential Electrification Case' suggests that electricity's share of industrial energy consumption could triple to 34.5% by 2050, requiring 699 GW of RES capacity and potentially reducing CO2 emissions by 37% (737 Mt) compared to business-as-usual.

The study evaluates four scenarios—Business-as-usual (BAU), Renewable Methane (REN-Methane), Renewable Hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and Cost Minimal (CM)—for the Baltic-Finland region. It finds that a 100% decarbonized gas supply is possible by 2040 under the CM scenario, which is also the most economically advantageous. The transition requires significant scaling of biomethane and renewable hydrogen, supported by substantial onshore and offshore wind capacity. The report recommends regional coordination on infrastructure, harmonized certification for low-carbon gases, and the potential banning of new fossil fuel boiler installations to meet 2050 net decarbonization goals.

The report evaluates pathways to decarbonise the Baltic-Finnish gas market, comparing a business-as-usual approach with renewable methane, renewable hydrogen, and cost-minimising scenarios. It finds that full decarbonisation by 2050 is possible, with the cost-minimising scenario offering the highest economic benefits, including a 44% reduction in total system costs and the creation of over 20,000 jobs. The analysis emphasises the critical role of onshore and offshore wind energy to power hydrogen production and suggests that existing LNG terminals can be repurposed for synthetic methane and bio-LNG. Key recommendations include regional integration of gas markets, harmonised certification for renewable gases, and the potential legal ban on connecting new buildings to the natural gas grid.

The briefing argues that current oil and gas production trajectories are incompatible with the Paris Agreement, with projected production by 2050 potentially exceeding 1.5°C-aligned needs by 260% for oil and 210% for gas. It advocates for a coordinated global phase-out led by the G7 and G20, emphasizing that new extraction projects must cease immediately. The author highlights the necessity of climate finance, noting a gap between current annual climate finance (USD 1.3 trillion) and the required green transition investment for emerging and developing economies (USD 2.4 trillion). To ensure equity, the document suggests assessing transition capacity based on GDP per capita, government revenue shares from fossil fuels, and workforce employment in the sector, while calling for the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and the implementation of innovative funding, such as taxes on fossil fuel company revenues.

The report evaluates Madagascar's cold chain infrastructure, focusing on medical vaccines and four agricultural value chains: potatoes, tomatoes, fisheries, and dairy. It identifies significant gaps in electricity access and road infrastructure that lead to high post-harvest losses and inequitable vaccine coverage. The analysis proposes electrification scenarios for healthcare facilities and investment roadmaps for agricultural cooling, emphasizing the high return on investment for fisheries and dairy.