What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?

This research paper analyzes land-system changes in the Gran Chaco from 1985 to 2015 and simulates potential futures up to 2045 to assess the social-ecological impacts of agricultural expansion under different policy narratives and expansion rates.

• The researchers analyzed land-system changes in the Gran Chaco, a 1.1 million km2 area, by reconstructing changes from 1985 to 2015 and simulating futures to 2045 using nine scenarios. These scenarios combined three policy narratives—Agribusiness, Ecomodernism, and Integration—with three different rates of agricultural expansion (high, medium, and low).
• Analysis of past changes since 1985 shows that large areas of woodland have been replaced by intensified agriculture and mosaics of agriculture and natural vegetation. Simulations for 2045 identify potential hotspots for natural vegetation loss in the western and southern Argentinian Chaco and the western Paraguayan Chaco, driven by both new and existing agricultural frontiers.
• The Agribusiness scenarios consistently produced the strongest social-ecological impacts, and current data suggests 10% of the Chaco is already on a pathway consistent with this narrative. In contrast, the Integration narrative resulted in lower social impacts, while the Ecomodernism narrative resulted in lower ecological impacts.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2024). What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? https://www.sei.org/publications/what-still-at-stake-gran-chaco/

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? 2024. https://www.sei.org/publications/what-still-at-stake-gran-chaco/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco? |date=27 June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/what-still-at-stake-gran-chaco/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2024what, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{What is still at stake in the Gran Chaco?}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/what-still-at-stake-gran-chaco/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }