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The document details a quantitative analysis of Pronaf access in Brazil, using 2017 Agricultural Census data. It employs linear regressions to assess how the presence of cooperatives and Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (ATER) services impact the share of family farmers accessing the program. The results indicate that both cooperatives and ATER have a statistically significant positive effect on Pronaf access, with the South region showing a positive correlation and the North, Northeast, and Southeast regions showing negative correlations relative to the baseline.

The report proposes the Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM), a results-based payment system designed to scale up tropical forest restoration through jurisdictional agreements. Unlike existing frameworks like JREDD+ and TFFF, which focus on halting deforestation and maintaining standing forests, RDM incentivizes net carbon removal by compensating jurisdictions for carbon captured through restoration minus emissions from deforestation and degradation. The report simulates the potential of RDM to transform tropical forests into high-impact climate assets, highlighting its potential to generate significant revenues and carbon sequestration, particularly in the Brazilian Amazon.

The research analyzes the transmission of compound climate hazards—such as simultaneous temperature and precipitation extremes—through global agricultural trade networks. Using climate model simulations and trade data for four major crops, the study finds that in extreme simulated years, nearly one-third of the world's countries see 20% or more of their caloric supply exposed to these hazards. The authors highlight that countries with low diversification in their number of suppliers and the regional climates of those suppliers are most vulnerable, with some importing up to 93% of calories exposed to compound hazards.

The study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to simulate the impact of basin-wide agricultural expansion in the La Plata River basin. It finds divergent regional climate responses: the northern region experiences decreased temperatures and precipitation due to increased albedo and moisture advection, while the southern region sees increased temperatures and precipitation due to decreased albedo and altered moisture flux convergence. These changes also influence precipitation patterns over the South Atlantic Ocean.

The study finds that the 2015/16 El Niño led to a 4% increase in global burned area and a 5% increase in fire emissions compared to a 'No El Niño' scenario, resulting in a 4% reduction in the terrestrial carbon sink. South America experienced the most significant impact, with a 13% increase in burned area and emitted carbon, primarily driven by temperature increases between August and October in central-southern Brazil.

The research examines how CCUS deployment in the U.S. power sector affects air pollution and energy costs, finding that the outcomes depend on the underlying policy and that Black and low-income populations experience the most significant impacts.

The document examines the relationship between agricultural land management and groundwater dynamics in the Pampas. It finds that annual crop rotations (soybean-wheat-corn) lead to higher groundwater levels and more frequent flooding compared to perennial alfalfa pastures, which maintain deeper water tables through higher annual transpiration. The text argues that planting water-logging tolerant cover crops or pastures during high-risk periods can reduce waterlogging frequency and increase the number of years suitable for farming by 40%.

The study analyzes land-system changes in the Gran Chaco from 1985 to 2015 and simulates futures up to 2045 across nine scenarios. It finds that the 'Agribusiness' narrative leads to the most severe social-ecological impacts, with 10% of the region already following this pathway. Potential hotspots for vegetation loss include western and southern Argentinian Chaco and western Paraguayan Chaco. The authors argue that stricter land-use and conservation planning are necessary to protect the region's biodiversity, carbon density, and forest-dependent communities.

The research paper assesses three Basic Income Grant (BIG) scenarios for South Africa: Low, Medium, and High Ambition. Using the Dynamically Integrated Macro-Micro Simulation Model (DIMMSIM), the author argues that a BIG can be funded through a combination of a wealth tax, a Social Security Tax (SST), and increased VAT revenue without requiring changes to existing income tax or VAT rates. The findings suggest that such a programme would significantly reduce poverty and inequality while simultaneously boosting GDP growth and employment, contradicting predictions from neoclassical CGE and DSGE models that suggest such transfers lead to economic contraction.

The analysis concludes that for long-haul heavy-duty trucking, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) outperform battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in terms of refueling stops, total dwell time, and cargo capacity. While BEVs offer higher energy efficiency, their heavy batteries significantly reduce payload and require a more extensive and larger infrastructure buildout. Infrastructure modeling indicates that a full transition to BEVs would require stations approximately 10 times the size of current diesel stations, whereas FCEV stations, while still larger than diesel, are more comparable, especially if updated safety regulations are adopted. The report suggests that while BEVs will be important for the broader transition, FCEVs are the most efficient strategy for the specific challenges of long-haul heavy-duty transport.

The report finds that Facebook's algorithm amplifies climate scepticism by recommending pages containing disinformation to users who engage with climate-sceptic content, contradicting the company's public commitments.

The report finds that Facebook's algorithm actively recommends climate disinformation to users who show an initial interest in climate-sceptic content, often leading them toward more extreme conspiracy theories. Despite the company's stated commitment to combat misinformation through its 'climate science centre' and flagging systems, the investigation found that a vast majority of recommended content for a sceptical user was disinformation, with only a small percentage of such posts carrying informational flags. The report argues that this environment polarises public opinion and hinders the implementation of climate mitigation policies, recommending that governments implement legislative oversight and algorithmic transparency, similar to the European Union's Digital Services Act.

The document argues that existing village-level evaluation tools in Indonesia, such as the IDM and IPD, are inadequate for measuring environmental performance and mainstreaming Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To address this, the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) proposes the Sustainable Village Development Index (IDM+), which adds 10 ecological indicators covering land-use, natural resource management, and climate actions to the existing index. Using Berau District in East Kalimantan as a case study, the paper demonstrates how IDM+ can be linked to fiscal instruments like Village Fund Allocation (ADD) and Financial Assistance (Bantuan Keuangan Kabupaten) to reward high-performing villages while providing affirmative support to low-performing ones. The author recommends that the central government incorporate IDM+ into the national IDM and that local governments ensure transparent implementation and capacity building.

The document describes the life of Hanna, a 13-year-old girl in Ethiopia facing severe hardships due to drought. Her daily life involves attending school and performing heavy household chores, specifically walking long distances to fetch water, which has become more difficult as drought increases wait times at boreholes and raises concerns about water contamination. The drought has caused significant economic instability; her father left for an Internal Displaced Persons camp with the family savings, leaving her mother to sell small food items to cover basic expenses and sanitary products. Consequently, Hanna is skipping meals due to rising food prices and lacks savings. While she is interested in climate-smart agricultural and livestock projects to improve local productivity and potentially convince her to stay in her community, her capacity to participate is limited by her age, lack of access to loans, and the time demands of her chores and studies.

This document is a role-playing scenario for a 'social lottery' game designed to simulate the experiences of a 22-year-old commercial sex worker living with HIV in Ethiopia during a drought.

The document details how authoritative climate data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) is integrated into the SAVi Buildings model. It provides a literature review on climate impacts on buildings—covering energy demand, rainwater harvesting, and climate hazards—and explains the methodology for translating this data into performance indicators. Simulation results demonstrate that using CDS climate data significantly alters projections compared to 'no climate' scenarios, specifically showing a 23-fold increase in forecasted rainwater harvesting yields and a reduction in projected energy expenditures for heating and cooling.

The document details how climate variables from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) are integrated into the SAVi Energy model to quantify the impact of climate change on various power generation technologies. It provides a comprehensive literature review of how variables like temperature, wind speed, and precipitation affect the load factor and thermal efficiency of coal, gas, nuclear, biomass, hydro, solar, and wind power, as well as the efficiency of the electricity grid. The report includes a simulation for Johannesburg, South Africa, demonstrating that rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns can significantly reduce the load factor and revenues for thermal and hydropower assets, while potentially increasing the load factor for wind energy.

The document details how climate indicators from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) are integrated into the SAVi tool to improve the analysis of infrastructure resilience. It covers a literature review of climate impacts on energy, irrigation, wastewater, buildings, roads, and nature-based infrastructure, providing specific equations to link climate variables to asset performance. The report includes simulation results for Johannesburg, South Africa, demonstrating how climate variables like temperature and precipitation affect load factors, thermal efficiency, and maintenance costs, ultimately impacting the economic viability and societal costs of these assets.

The document details how authoritative climate data from the Copernicus CDS is integrated into the SAVi model for nature-based infrastructure. It provides a literature review on the impacts of precipitation, vegetation, and temperature on assets like green roofs, wetlands, and urban forests. The report demonstrates the model's application through simulations in Johannesburg, showing how temperature affects phosphorus removal in wetlands and how increasing vegetation cover can mitigate heat-related labor productivity losses.

The document details how climate data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) is integrated into the SAVi Roads model to improve the analysis of climate-related risks. It focuses on three primary impacts: precipitation effects on road lifetime, weather effects on injury accidents, and precipitation-based road runoff. Simulation results for a 1,000 km road network between 2020 and 2100 show that CDS integration reveals higher cumulative road disruption, an increase in injury accidents, and significantly higher stormwater runoff compared to a 'no climate' baseline. The economic analysis indicates that the most substantial cost increase stems from stormwater management, totaling an additional USD 2.06 billion over 80 years.