El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16

The study finds that the 2015/16 El Niño led to a 4% increase in global burned area and a 5% increase in fire emissions compared to a 'No El Niño' scenario, resulting in a 4% reduction in the terrestrial carbon sink. South America experienced the most significant impact, with a 13% increase in burned area and emitted carbon, primarily driven by temperature increases between August and October in central-southern Brazil.

• The 2015/16 El Niño caused a global increase in burned area by 4% and fire emissions by 5% when compared to a scenario without El Niño, which contributed to a 4% decrease in the terrestrial carbon sink.
• South America exhibited the most substantial fire response to the El Niño, recording a 13% increase in both burned area and emitted carbon, which aligned with the most significant decrease in carbon uptake.
• In central-southern Brazil, peak fire activity occurred from August to October, with temperature identified as the primary driver for the increase in burned area during this timeframe.
• The model indicates variable precipitation responses, with drier conditions in East Asia, southern Africa, and northern South America, while most global areas experienced temperature increases.

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (2025). El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16. https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16. 2025. https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16 |date=9 January 2025 |url=https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearch2025niodriven, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2025}, month = jan, url = {https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }