El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16

This research paper uses the JULES dynamic land surface model and the INFERNO fire module to analyze the impact of the 2015/16 El Niño event on global fire activity, burned areas, and carbon sinks, comparing observed conditions against mean climatological drivers.

• The 2015/16 El Niño event resulted in a global increase of 4% in burned area and a 5% increase in emissions compared to a scenario without El Niño, which contributed to a 4% reduction in the terrestrial carbon sink.
• South America experienced the most significant fire response during the 2015/16 El Niño, with a 13% increase in both burned area and emitted carbon, leading to the largest decrease in carbon uptake. In central-southern Brazil, peak fire activity occurred between August and October, primarily driven by temperature.
• The model indicates variable precipitation responses, with drier conditions in East Asia, southern Africa, and northern South America, while most global areas experienced temperature increases. This led to higher simulated burned areas in most regions, though Africa showed a mix of increased and decreased burned areas.

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (2025). El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16. https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16. 2025. https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16 |date=9 January 2025 |url=https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearch2025niodriven, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{El Niño-driven changes in global fire 2015/16}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2025}, month = jan, url = {https://iai.int/es/pub_acad/el-nino-driven-changes-in-global-fire-2015-16/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }