Integration of Climate Data in the SAVi Roads Model

The document details how climate data from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) is integrated into the SAVi Roads model to improve the analysis of climate-related risks. It focuses on three primary impacts: precipitation effects on road lifetime, weather effects on injury accidents, and precipitation-based road runoff. Simulation results for a 1,000 km road network between 2020 and 2100 show that CDS integration reveals higher cumulative road disruption, an increase in injury accidents, and significantly higher stormwater runoff compared to a 'no climate' baseline. The economic analysis indicates that the most substantial cost increase stems from stormwater management, totaling an additional USD 2.06 billion over 80 years.

• Precipitation is estimated to be responsible for approximately 37.5% of road depreciation, specifically in terms of rutting depth.
• Simulation results for 1,000 km of road from 2020 to 2100 show that integrating CDS climate data increases forecasted cumulative road disruption to 1,688.9 km, compared to ,1601.67 km in the no climate scenario, representing an additional disruption of 5.45% or 87.26 km.
• The integration of weather data predicts a 1.2% increase in injury accidents between 2020 and 2100 compared to the no climate scenario, averaging approximately 16.5 additional accidents per year.
• The CDS integration reveals that previous formulations underestimated stormwater runoff; the maximum monthly load increased from 758.63 million liters in the no climate scenario to 3,182.3 million liters, and cumulative runoff over 80 years for 1,000 km of road rose by 68.05 billion liters.
• The most significant economic impact of integrating CDS data is the cost of stormwater management, which is projected to increase by USD 2.06 billion over 80 years, averaging USD 25.58 million annually.
• Total economic differences between the no climate scenario and the CDS climate impact scenario total USD 2.08 billion between 2020 and 2100, with stormwater management being the largest contributor.
• Climate-related impacts on asphalt result in an additional USD 9.4 million in capital expenditure for road construction and approximately USD 87,000 in additional maintenance costs over 80 years.
• The integration of weather variables into accident equations indicates an additional economic cost of traffic accidents totaling USD 21.9 million between 2020 and 2100.

APA

Perera, O., Bechauf, R., Casier, L., Lago, S., Perrette, M., Uzsoki, D., Wuennenberg, L., Bassi, A. M., & Pallaske, G. (2020). Integration of Climate Data in the SAVi Roads Model. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-09/intregration-climate-data-savi-roads-model.pdf

Chicago

Perera, Oshani, Ronja Bechauf, Liesbeth Casier, Sergio Lago, Mahé Perrette, David Uzsoki, Laurin Wuennenberg, Andrea M. Bassi, and Georg Pallaske. Integration of Climate Data in the SAVi Roads Model. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2020. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-09/intregration-climate-data-savi-roads-model.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Perera |first1=Oshani |last2=Bechauf |first2=Ronja |last3=Casier |first3=Liesbeth |last4=Lago |first4=Sergio |last5=Perrette |first5=Mahé |last6=Uzsoki |first6=David |last7=Wuennenberg |first7=Laurin |last8=Bassi |first8=Andrea M. |last9=Pallaske |first9=Georg |title=Integration of Climate Data in the SAVi Roads Model |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=September 2020 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-09/intregration-climate-data-savi-roads-model.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{perera2020integration, author = {Perera, Oshani and Bechauf, Ronja and Casier, Liesbeth and Lago, Sergio and Perrette, Mahé and Uzsoki, David and Wuennenberg, Laurin and Bassi, Andrea M. and Pallaske, Georg}, title = {{Integration of Climate Data in the SAVi Roads Model}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-09/intregration-climate-data-savi-roads-model.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }