Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome

The report evaluates pathways to decarbonise the Baltic-Finnish gas market, comparing a business-as-usual approach with renewable methane, renewable hydrogen, and cost-minimising scenarios. It finds that full decarbonisation by 2050 is possible, with the cost-minimising scenario offering the highest economic benefits, including a 44% reduction in total system costs and the creation of over 20,000 jobs. The analysis emphasises the critical role of onshore and offshore wind energy to power hydrogen production and suggests that existing LNG terminals can be repurposed for synthetic methane and bio-LNG. Key recommendations include regional integration of gas markets, harmonised certification for renewable gases, and the potential legal ban on connecting new buildings to the natural gas grid.

• The study identifies four primary scenarios for the region's gas sector: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Methane (REN-Methane), Renewable Hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and a Cost-Minimising (CM) scenario. Under the CM scenario, the region could achieve 100% decarbonised gas supply by 2040, relying on biomethane for 64% (23 TWh) and renewable hydrogen for 36% (14 TWh) of the supply.
• The Cost-Minimising scenario is the most economically advantageous, providing a cumulative production gain of 0.25% to 0.33% of regional GDP and creating between 20,189 and 21,268 additional jobs. It also reduces total gas system costs by 44% compared to the BAU scenario.
• Decarbonisation requires significant expansion of wind energy to meet electricity demands for hydrogen and synthetic natural gas production. In the Renewable Hydrogen scenario, the regional electricity demand reaches 66 TWh by 2050, requiring specific capacities: Estonia (1.2 GW onshore, 0.859 GW offshore), Latvia (1.8 GW onshore, 1.3 GW offshore), Lithuania (8.7 GW onshore, 5.4 GW offshore), and Finland (3.9 GW onshore, 3.6 GW offshore).
• Biomethane is the most economically viable gas option by 2050, with an average regional price of 55 EUR/MWh. Latvia has the lowest production cost at approximately 44 EUR/MWh because it uses bio-waste as the sole feedstock.
• Renewable hydrogen is less attractive due to higher costs, averaging 154 EUR/MWh across scenarios, although costs are projected to drop by about 64% between 2030 and 2050 due to technological advances.
• Existing LNG terminals, particularly in Klaipėda, are sufficient for regional needs until 2044 and can be repurposed. While they can currently import synthetic methane and bio-LNG without modification, hydrogen derivatives like green methanol and green ammonia would require technical reconfiguration and new safety measures due to toxicity.
• Total investment for full decarbonisation under the Cost-Minimising scenario is estimated at 11.3 billion EUR by 2050, with 88% of these costs falling on Lithuania and Finland due to their larger gas markets.

APA

Aeby, L., Lee, L. Y., Dedecca, J. G., van Nuffel, L., Keypour, J., Muthukumaran, G., & Tool, B. (2024). Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/

Chicago

Aeby, L., L. Y. Lee, J. G. Dedecca, L. van Nuffel, J. Keypour, G. Muthukumaran, and B. Tool. Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aeby |first1=L. |last2=Lee |first2=L. Y. |last3=Dedecca |first3=J. G. |last4=van Nuffel |first4=L. |last5=Keypour |first5=J. |last6=Muthukumaran |first6=G. |last7=Tool |first7=B. |title=Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=10 June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aeby2024gaasivrgu, author = {Aeby, L. and Lee, L. Y. and Dedecca, J. G. and van Nuffel, L. and Keypour, J. and Muthukumaran, G. and Tool, B.}, title = {{Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }