Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome

This executive summary, based on a report by Aeby et al. (2023), analyzes four decarbonization pathways for the gas sectors of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The study evaluates scenarios including Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Methane (REN-Methane), Renewable Hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and a Cost-Minimizing (CM) scenario, emphasizing the need for regional coordination to reduce dependence on Russian gas and meet EU sustainability goals.

• The study analyzed four decarbonization scenarios for the Baltic-Finnish gas market: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Methane (REN-Methane), Renewable Hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and a Cost-Minimizing (CM) scenario. The analysis indicates that gas supply can be maintained even if the sector is decarbonized before 2050.
• Regional gas demand is projected to decrease by 40%, falling from 63 TWh in 2021 to 38 TWh by 2050, driven by energy efficiency and direct electrification measures.
• The Cost-Minimizing (CM) scenario is identified as the most economically favorable, predicting 100% decarbonized gas supply by 2040 based on biomethane (64% or 23 TWh) and renewable hydrogen (36% or 14 TWh). This scenario would generate a cumulative production benefit of 0.25% to 0.33% of regional GDP and create between 20,189 and 21,268 additional jobs compared to the BAU scenario, while reducing total gas system costs by 44%.
• Biomethane is projected to be the most economical gas to produce by 2050, with an average regional price of 55 euro/MWh. Latvia has the lowest production cost at approximately 44 euro/MWh because bio-waste is the sole feedstock and incurs no costs.
• Renewable hydrogen production costs are expected to drop by approximately 64% between 2030 and 2050. However, with an average regional price of 154 euro/MWh, it remains significantly more expensive than methane, making it a less attractive decarbonization option.
• To achieve full decarbonization under the Cost-Minimizing scenario, a total investment of 11.3 billion euros in renewable gas production and storage is required by 2050. Lithuania and Finland account for 88% of this cost due to their larger gas markets.
• Existing LNG terminals, particularly in Klaipėda, are sufficient for regional needs until 2044. While they can currently import synthetic methane and bio-LNG without modification, the import of hydrogen derivatives like green methanol and green ammonia would require technical reconfiguration and new safety measures due to toxicity.

APA

Aeby, L., Lee, L. Y., Dedecca, J. G., van Nuffel, L., Keypour, J., Muthukumaran, G., & Tool, B. (2024). Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/

Chicago

Aeby, L., L. Y. Lee, J. G. Dedecca, L. van Nuffel, J. Keypour, G. Muthukumaran, and B. Tool. Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aeby |first1=L. |last2=Lee |first2=L. Y. |last3=Dedecca |first3=J. G. |last4=van Nuffel |first4=L. |last5=Keypour |first5=J. |last6=Muthukumaran |first6=G. |last7=Tool |first7=B. |title=Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=10 June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aeby2024gaasivrgu, author = {Aeby, L. and Lee, L. Y. and Dedecca, J. G. and van Nuffel, L. and Keypour, J. and Muthukumaran, G. and Tool, B.}, title = {{Gaasivõrgu dekarboniseerimine Baltimaad ja Soome}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/gaasivorgu-dekarboniseerimine-baltimaad-soome/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }