Principles for just and equitable oil and gas phase out

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics, produced with Strategic Perspectives, proposes principles and frameworks for a just and equitable global phase-out of oil and gas production. It argues that current production trajectories are incompatible with the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement and calls for leadership from the G7 and G20 to coordinate a managed decline of fossil fuels to avoid stranded assets and minimize social costs.

• Current oil and gas production trajectories are incompatible with the 1.5°C temperature goal. Feasible 1.5°C scenarios require production to decline by 65% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels, yet projected production is set to be 260% for oil and 210% for gas above what is required.
• Existing fossil fuel infrastructure is already sufficient to meet demand under 1.5°C scenarios; consequently, any new extraction projects would risk exceeding the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. To remain within the 1.5°C carbon budget, 40% of 'developed' coal, oil, and gas reserves must remain unextracted.
• A lack of coordinated phase-out planning increases economic risks, including an estimated USD 1.4 trillion in stranded assets if warming is limited to 2°C. The document suggests that countries should halt the opening of new oil and gas fields while a global phase-out is negotiated.
• The briefing identifies several methodologies for determining an equitable phase-out, often based on the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities'. One framework, the Civil Society Equity Review, assesses social dependence based on the share of primary energy consumption from domestic fossil fuels, the share of government revenues from extraction, and the share of the workforce employed in the sector.
• Climate finance is a critical enabler for the transition, with an estimated USD 2.4 trillion in annual green transition investment needed through 2030 for emerging and developing economies (excluding China). This far exceeds current climate finance, estimated at USD 1.3 trillion annually.
• The G7 and G20 are positioned as key leaders to define 'just, orderly and equitable' transition pathways. Recommended practical steps for these groups include ending the licensing of new projects, phasing out coal by 2030 (for G7) or 2035 (for developing countries), and implementing a tax on fossil fuel companies' revenues.

APA

Team, Z. (2024). Principles for just and equitable oil and gas phase out. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/principles-for-just-and-equitable-oil-and-gas-phase-out/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Principles for just and equitable oil and gas phase out. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2024. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/principles-for-just-and-equitable-oil-and-gas-phase-out/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Principles for just and equitable oil and gas phase out |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=7 June 2024 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/principles-for-just-and-equitable-oil-and-gas-phase-out/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2024principles, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Principles for just and equitable oil and gas phase out}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/principles-for-just-and-equitable-oil-and-gas-phase-out/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }