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The Nature-Based Infrastructure (NBI) transformation program in Kisumu, Kenya, integrates agroforestry, sanitation, and fisheries to restore the Lake Victoria basin. A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment indicates that an integrated approach could generate USD 940 million in net benefits over 26 years, yielding approximately USD 3 for every dollar invested. Key economic drivers include USD 480 million in avoided health costs through improved sanitation and USD 62.85 million in carbon valuation, which exceeds the program's capital expenditures.

The project targets six priority value chains (dairy, poultry, coffee, tea, fruit trees, and African leafy vegetables) in the Lake Region Economic Bloc (LREB) of Kenya. It aims to reach 572,000 direct beneficiaries, primarily smallholder farmers, by improving public agro-climate services, implementing sustainable landscape management, and deploying climate-resilient technologies. The initiative leverages the cooperative movement to facilitate risk-sharing and technology upscale, while partnering with financial institutions like Kenya Commercial Bank to provide accessible credit. The project expects to reduce GHG emissions by 4,268,492 tCO2eq over 20 years and restore or manage 30,540 hectares of land.

The report details a scenario exercise conducted by the Council on Strategic Risks to explore how biodiversity loss in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) can trigger security crises. Using a hypothetical 2034 'Cichlid Collapse' as a starting point, the study identifies social resilience and economic stability as the primary drivers of future security outcomes. It presents four potential futures ranging from a virtuous cycle of cooperation to a 'death spiral' of widespread conflict and ecological collapse. The report argues that biodiversity loss exacerbates resource competition, governance fragility, and the influence of violent extremist organizations, recommending a 'whole of system' approach integrating defense, diplomacy, and development to mitigate these risks.

The report argues that ecological disruption is an underappreciated security threat and advocates for the integration of strategic foresight tools—such as horizon scanning, futures wheels, and scenario planning—into national security architecture. It identifies land/sea-use change and global atmospheric/oceanic warming as the primary drivers of ecological instability. Through four plausible mid-century scenarios, the document illustrates how these drivers can lead to systemic collapses, such as Amazon dieback or the failure of the Lake Victoria Basin, resulting in famine, pandemics, and geopolitical conflict. The author recommends that security stakeholders shift their risk calculus to include ecological decline and prioritize locally-led, indigenous stewardship in resource management.

Uganda faces significant climate risks, particularly in its semi-arid northern regions and the 'cattle corridor,' where rising temperatures and rainfall variability threaten agriculture, water, and health. While the government has established a National Climate Change Policy and a coordinating institutional structure, adaptation mainstreaming into sectoral plans and district-level decision-making remains limited. International adaptation finance is heavily concentrated in the agriculture and water sectors, leaving gaps in fisheries, forestry, and health. The country is currently working toward a National Adaptation Plan to better integrate climate resilience into its goal of becoming a middle-income country by 2040.

Kenya is highly vulnerable to climate risks, particularly droughts and floods, which create a long-term fiscal liability estimated at 2.0 to 2.4 per cent of GDP annually. The report identifies critical dependencies in the agricultural, water, and energy sectors, noting that 98 per cent of crop production is rain-fed and over half of electricity is generated by hydropower. While the government has established frameworks like Vision 2030 and the National Climate Change Response Strategy, the report finds that disaster risk management remains largely reactive and uncoordinated, with significant capacity gaps at the subnational level. It recommends deeper research into sector-specific vulnerabilities, the 'climate proofing' of infrastructure and budgets, and the integration of gender-disaggregated data into planning.

The policy brief examines the friction between Tanzania's land laws and its gold mining sector. While gold production has increased significantly, contributing 41.3% of export earnings, the lack of alignment between the land and mining cadastres has led to land degradation and tenure conflicts. The author highlights the environmental impact of large-scale mines, such as the North Mara Mine, and the unregulated nature of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). The brief recommends strengthening compensation frameworks, merging land and mining cadastres, and exploring co-ownership models to address the deep ancestral attachments of local communities to their land.

The document examines the intersection of environmental governance and climate change in Africa, highlighting the continent's high vulnerability due to low adaptive capacity and 'multiple stresses'. It analyzes specific case studies on land degradation and gender in Uganda, informal institutions in the Lake Victoria Basin, and renewable energy policies in Nigeria and Uganda. It further critiques the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from an African perspective, suggesting reforms to increase participation and sustainable development. Finally, it argues for a human rights-based approach to climate mitigation and adaptation to protect the most vulnerable populations.

The document assesses how climate variability and anthropogenic factors drive resource scarcity and conflict in Africa, focusing on the African Union's response and specific regional crises in the Lake Chad Basin, Lesotho, the Nile Basin, the Niger Delta, Tanzania, South Africa, Kenya, Botswana, and Uganda.