Search Climate Insights Directory

The report analyzes Kenya's development path toward 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' with eight ambitious sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. Key findings highlight that while Kenya has a resilient economy and leads Africa in geothermal energy, it faces significant hurdles in corruption, infrastructure, and public debt. The analysis suggests that full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and improvements in governance would have the most substantial positive impacts on GDP per capita and poverty reduction. A combined approach of all scenarios could increase GDP by 123.1% over the current path and drastically reduce carbon emissions by transitioning fully to renewables.

The report outlines Kenya's transition from a one-party state to a multiparty democracy and its current administrative structure of 47 semi-autonomous counties. It details the country's diverse natural resources, including minerals and agricultural commodities, and examines the 'Vision 2030' development blueprint. The document highlights economic progress, such as GDP growth and poverty reduction between 2010 and 2019, while noting critical challenges including climate change, high energy costs, and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russian war.

A SAVi assessment indicates that investing USD 41.7 million in the restoration and conservation of mangroves and wetlands in Mozambique's Bons Sinais, Zambezi, and Limpopo estuaries could generate up to USD 537.5 million in net benefits. The project aims to restore 7,500 hectares of wetlands and 3,800 hectares of mangroves, while conserving 30,000 hectares of coastal ecosystems, providing a return of nearly USD 14 for every USD 1 invested. These interventions are designed to reduce flood and pollution damages by over USD 120 million and benefit approximately 211,000 people directly and over 1 million people indirectly.

The Nature-Based Infrastructure (NBI) transformation program in Kisumu, Kenya, integrates agroforestry, sanitation, and fisheries to restore the Lake Victoria basin. A Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) assessment indicates that an integrated approach could generate USD 940 million in net benefits over 26 years, yielding approximately USD 3 for every dollar invested. Key economic drivers include USD 480 million in avoided health costs through improved sanitation and USD 62.85 million in carbon valuation, which exceeds the program's capital expenditures.

The Nairobi Non-Motorized Transport Enforcement Dialogue, held on April 6, 2022, brought together various Nairobi Metropolitan Services (NMS) departments to evaluate the state of non-motorized transport (NMT) infrastructure and enforcement. While the forum celebrated well-maintained footpaths and cycling paths on streets such as Kenyatta Avenue and Muindi Mbingu Street, it identified significant failures including illegal vendor encroachment, lack of accessibility for persons with disabilities on Jogoo Road footbridges, and air pollution. NMS officials committed to improving NMT systems in 10 major corridors by the end of 2022 and enhancing pedestrian safety through street lighting. Key enforcement challenges identified include political interference and hostility from boda boda riders, with officials emphasizing the need for greater public sensitization and inter-departmental coordination.

The document details a project by Phaesun, University Hohenheim, and Solar Cooling Engineering to deploy solar cooling systems for smallholder dairy farmers in Kenya. By introducing the 'Milky Way' and 'SelfChill' technologies, the project aimed to address high microbial contamination and milk losses, which are estimated at 20-30% due to a lack of cooling. The implementation of these systems across approximately 10 farms and cooperatives reduced milk losses by about 25% and increased income for at least 50 people. The project, funded by GIZ and BMZ, also validated a monthly payment model for the service and transitioned to a modular, pay-as-you-go compatible 'SelfChill' concept to meet demand for medium-scale cooling.

The report finds that while social media engagement alone achieves limited results in promoting police accountability in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, it serves as a valuable tool for documenting misconduct and mobilising the public. Analysis shows a general net negative sentiment towards police in all three countries, though the nature of engagement varies: Kenyans and Ugandans frequently tag official police handles, whereas Tanzanians rely more on activist profiles due to a more repressive environment. The study highlights that police responsiveness on social media directly correlates with improved public sentiment, though overall response rates remain very low.

The report investigates how gender relations influence vulnerability to climate risks and the ability to adapt in urban settings, specifically focusing on the People’s Plans into Practice (PPP) project in Kisumu, Kenya. It explores the meaning of gender-sensitive approaches in this context, their impact on empowerment, and the associated constraints and opportunities for achieving climate compatible development outcomes.

The brief examines gender-sensitive approaches to climate compatible development in urban Kenya, focusing on the 'People’s Plans into Practice (PPP)' project in Kisumu. It finds that including vulnerable groups and women in decision-making improves the addressing of practical needs and enables women to assume leadership roles, although cultural attitudes continue to allow men to dominate planning processes.

The report examines how gender relations influence vulnerability to climate risks in urban Kisumu, Kenya. Using the People’s Plans into Practice (PPP) project (2008–2013) as a case study, it finds that while gender-sensitive programming—such as participatory design of water and sanitation facilities—can improve outcomes and empower women, deep-seated cultural biases and structural barriers like male-dominated land ownership persist. The study argues that for climate compatible development to be effective, it must move beyond 'gender-blind' or 'gender-aware' approaches toward 'gender-transformative' strategies that address the root causes of vulnerability and are supported by coordinated county-level policies.

The brief examines how gender-sensitive programming in urban Kisumu, Kenya, can improve climate compatible development outcomes by addressing the distinct vulnerabilities of men and women. While the PPP project demonstrated that inclusive decision-making allows for better addressing of practical needs and enables women to take leadership roles, significant barriers remain, including entrenched cultural attitudes and insufficient institutional capacity. The document recommends gender audits, the appointment of gender focal persons in county departments, and a focus on structural barriers to ensure more equitable and effective climate interventions.

The document analyzes how Kenyan voters accessed information during the 2013 elections, finding that while media is highly trusted, personal discussions with close associates are the most powerful drivers of political persuasion. It highlights the limited impact of social media and the role of televised presidential debates in forming opinions, while noting that most voters' choices are based on long-standing party identification tied to specific leaders rather than party platforms.

The Kenyan agricultural sector, which accounts for over a fifth of the GDP, is highly sensitive to climate change, facing risks from unpredictable rainfall, droughts, and pests. While the sector is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases—primarily from livestock—the document emphasizes that adaptation to ensure food security and export earnings is the priority. It suggests climate-smart practices such as agroforestry and conservation tillage to build resilience and reduce emissions, while noting that the carbon market currently offers limited financial benefits due to high monitoring costs.

The report finds that existing climate variability already costs Kenya up to 2% of GDP annually, with future climate change potentially adding a loss of 2.6% of GDP per year by 2030. Adaptation needs are estimated at $500 million per year for 2012, rising to $1-2 billion per year by 2030. The study also identifies significant opportunities for low-carbon growth, noting that over 80% of selected energy-related emission reduction options can be realized at a net negative cost.

The document analyses the systemic drivers of political violence in Kenya, including strong executive powers, impunity, and socioeconomic inequalities. It evaluates responses such as criminal prosecutions via the ICC or domestic tribunals, institutional reforms, and the establishment of a Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission to prevent future recurrence.

The report applies a prototype framework to Kenya, finding a simultaneous decline in biodiversity and human well-being. It identifies land-use change, resource consumption, demographics, and economics as primary drivers of ecosystem change. While Kenya's PRSP addresses several social opportunities, it is found to be less effective in addressing demographic drivers and lacks a concrete implementation strategy for environmental regulations.

The report argues that gender-sensitive approaches lead to more sustainable climate compatible development by recognizing the distinct needs of men and women and addressing power imbalances. Using case studies from urban areas in India, Kenya, and Peru, it finds that women's active participation in decision-making improves the effectiveness of resilience-building activities, such as water and sanitation projects. However, the report notes that significant obstacles remain, including patriarchal cultural norms, lack of political will, and limited women's access to land and financial assets. It emphasizes that gender equality must be an explicit goal from the start of a project to move beyond addressing practical needs toward transforming strategic power relations.

AquaMnara, supported by FSD Africa's TECA project, provides aquaculture farmers in Kisumu, Kenya, with technical support, value chain linkages, and financial facilitation to improve climate resilience and production. The startup focuses on sustainable practices, water quality management, and empowering women in the sector through a dedicated 'women in aquaculture' programme.

Britam Insurance Kenya, with support from FSD Africa, developed and piloted a flood insurance product in Tana River County to mitigate climate risks for vulnerable households. Following heavy rains between October and December 2023, 300 families received total payouts of Kshs. 47,000 each, totaling Kshs. 15 million. The pilot demonstrated a demand for such products, with over 70% of surveyed households in flood-prone areas expressing willingness to invest in insurance. Britam is now scaling the project in partnership with the Tana River County Government to reach 20,000 families and is exploring a separate proof of concept for urban flood risks in Kisumu.

Kenya faces significant cooling challenges, with 40% of agricultural produce lost annually due to inadequate cold chains and government health facilities seeing minimal electricity access improvements (69% to 70% between 2016 and 2021). While the cold chain market is projected to reach USD 2.1 billion by 2030, the sector is hindered by fragmented infrastructure and high costs for small-scale farmers. In the health sector, the Ministry of Health aims to equip all facilities with optimal Cold Chain Equipment by 2026, having already deployed 8,342 refrigerators. Urban areas like Mombasa and Nairobi's Kibera settlement suffer from the urban heat island effect and poor building design, with 90% of available air conditioners being low-efficiency models. Additional cooling needs are identified in data centres and planned nuclear power plants in Kilifi and Kwale.