Gone Fishing: A Biodiversity Loss Security Scenario in the Lake Victoria Basin

The report details a scenario exercise conducted by the Council on Strategic Risks to explore how biodiversity loss in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) can trigger security crises. Using a hypothetical 2034 'Cichlid Collapse' as a starting point, the study identifies social resilience and economic stability as the primary drivers of future security outcomes. It presents four potential futures ranging from a virtuous cycle of cooperation to a 'death spiral' of widespread conflict and ecological collapse. The report argues that biodiversity loss exacerbates resource competition, governance fragility, and the influence of violent extremist organizations, recommending a 'whole of system' approach integrating defense, diplomacy, and development to mitigate these risks.

• Biodiversity loss in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) acts as a catalyst for security risks by exacerbating competition over natural resources, specifically through disputes over fishing rights between local communities.
• The security impacts of biodiversity loss are primarily shaped by two diagnostic and uncertain drivers: social resilience (the ability of communities to withstand ecological shocks) and economic stability (the capacity to sustain alternative livelihoods).
• The report outlines four potential future scenarios based on the intersection of social and economic drivers: 'It’s Going to be Good Forever..?' (high resilience, high stability), 'On the Hook' (high resilience, low stability), 'Fragile Stability' (low resilience, high stability), and 'The Death Spiral' (low resilience, low stability).
• In the most severe scenario ('The Death Spiral'), biodiversity loss and ecological collapse lead to widespread intra- and inter-state conflict, the militarization of resource allocation, and increased influence of groups like Al-Shabaab.
• Biodiversity loss creates specific vulnerabilities that can be exploited by violent extremist organizations and organized crime, particularly when economic opportunities decline and social cohesion weakens.
• Effective mitigation requires a 'whole of system' approach that integrates biodiversity loss literacy and cooperation across Defence, Development, and Diplomacy, alongside the use of geospatial intelligence and forecasting tools.

APA

Selisny, L. (2024). Gone Fishing: A Biodiversity Loss Security Scenario in the Lake Victoria Basin. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/11/12/gone-fishing-a-biodiversity-loss-security-scenario-in-the-lake-victoria-basin/

Chicago

Selisny, Louise. Gone Fishing: A Biodiversity Loss Security Scenario in the Lake Victoria Basin. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2024. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/11/12/gone-fishing-a-biodiversity-loss-security-scenario-in-the-lake-victoria-basin/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Selisny |first1=Louise |title=Gone Fishing: A Biodiversity Loss Security Scenario in the Lake Victoria Basin |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=12 November 2024 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/11/12/gone-fishing-a-biodiversity-loss-security-scenario-in-the-lake-victoria-basin/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{selisny2024gone, author = {Selisny, Louise}, title = {{Gone Fishing: A Biodiversity Loss Security Scenario in the Lake Victoria Basin}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/11/12/gone-fishing-a-biodiversity-loss-security-scenario-in-the-lake-victoria-basin/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }