Textiles and Garments Trade and Climate Scenarios on the Road to 2050: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development

The textile and garment sector is a major global emitter, with estimates ranging from 2% to 10% of annual global GHG emissions. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to both the physical impacts of climate change—risking millions of jobs in hubs like Bangladesh and Vietnam—and the transition risks posed by new sustainability regulations in consumer markets. The document highlights the potential for border carbon adjustments (BCAs) and the EU's Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR) to create non-tariff trade barriers. It also addresses the environmental crisis of textile waste dumping in Africa and South America. To ensure a just transition, the author argues for the inclusion of the sector in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), increased international financial and technical support, and a coordinated approach via the WTO to prevent protectionism.

• Estimates of the textile and garment sector's contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions vary significantly, ranging from 1.025 gigatonnes of CO2e (roughly 2% of annual global emissions) to as high as 10% of annual global carbon emissions.
• Climate change poses severe economic risks to major apparel hubs; by 2030, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Vietnam could lose one million jobs and face $65 billion in losses, representing a 22% decline in export earnings.
• Most major textile producing countries rely heavily on fossil fuels for primary energy consumption, with shares often exceeding 80%, complicating the reduction of scope 2 emissions.
• The introduction of Border Carbon Adjustments (BCAs) could increase textile unit production costs by 2–3% for China and the US, and approximately 9% for India, assuming a carbon price of $50 per tonne in 2030.
• The EU's Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR), effective July 2024, will introduce ecodesign requirements and a Digital Product Passport (DPP) to enhance traceability and circularity, which may act as non-tariff trade barriers for developing countries.
• The global trade in second-hand clothing often masks the dumping of textile waste in developing countries, with over 9.7 million tonnes of used textiles exported in 2022, significantly impacting regions in Africa and South America, including the Atacama Desert in Chile.
• There is a significant gap in national climate planning for the sector; among the ten major exporting countries, only Pakistan's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) explicitly mentions the textile and garment sector.

APA

Schröder, P. (2024). Textiles and Garments Trade and Climate Scenarios on the Road to 2050: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Textiles-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1732201139

Chicago

Schröder, Patrick. Textiles and Garments Trade and Climate Scenarios on the Road to 2050: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2024. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Textiles-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1732201139.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schröder |first1=Patrick |title=Textiles and Garments Trade and Climate Scenarios on the Road to 2050: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=November 2024 |url=https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Textiles-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1732201139 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schrder2024textiles, author = {Schröder, Patrick}, title = {{Textiles and Garments Trade and Climate Scenarios on the Road to 2050: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Textiles-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1732201139}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }