Fisheries Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development

The document examines how the climate crisis and overfishing mutually exacerbate marine ecosystem degradation and how these factors disrupt global fisheries trade. It highlights that tropical developing regions are projected to suffer the most severe reductions in fish catches, while the Global North is better positioned to capture new economic opportunities. The author argues for a transition toward low-emission technologies, the removal of harmful subsidies, and the adoption of value-added processing and digital traceability to support developing countries in maintaining food security and economic stability.

• Climate change and overfishing create a feedback loop where overfishing reduces the ocean's capacity to sequester carbon and lowers ecosystem resilience, while climate-driven ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation cause fish species to migrate or perish.
• If global warming exceeds 2°C, greenhouse gas emissions from the fisheries sector could increase by 30–40% due to expanded aquaculture and increased fishing effort as grounds shift. Global fish catches are projected to decline by 3–25% by 2050, with the most severe impacts occurring in tropical developing regions.
• The climate crisis creates an inequality dynamic where the Global North, which generates the highest per capita CO2 emissions, is most likely to benefit from new short-term investment opportunities in sustainable practices and aquaculture, while the Global South bears the highest costs.
• Trade policies are shifting toward stricter sustainability and transparency requirements, including the use of eco-labels, electronic catch documentation, and the EU's carding system to reduce illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing.
• Many current government subsidies in the fisheries sector are harmful as they catalyze overcapacity and overfishing; the author advocates for redirecting these funds toward conservation and sustainable practices.
• Developing countries can enhance their economic resilience by investing in value-added processing (e.g., fillets and canned seafood), digital transformation for traceability, and nature-based solutions such as mangrove restoration.

APA

Sumaila, U. R. (2024). Fisheries Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Fisheries-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1731502892

Chicago

Sumaila, U. Rashid. Fisheries Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2024. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Fisheries-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1731502892.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sumaila |first1=U. Rashid |title=Fisheries Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=November 2024 |url=https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Fisheries-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1731502892 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sumaila2024fisheries, author = {Sumaila, U. Rashid}, title = {{Fisheries Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Fisheries-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1731502892}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }