Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland)

The study evaluates four scenarios—Business-as-usual (BAU), Renewable Methane (REN-Methane), Renewable Hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and Cost Minimal (CM)—for the Baltic-Finland region. It finds that a 100% decarbonized gas supply is possible by 2040 under the CM scenario, which is also the most economically advantageous. The transition requires significant scaling of biomethane and renewable hydrogen, supported by substantial onshore and offshore wind capacity. The report recommends regional coordination on infrastructure, harmonized certification for low-carbon gases, and the potential banning of new fossil fuel boiler installations to meet 2050 net decarbonization goals.

• The Cost Minimal (CM) scenario is the most economically effective pathway, achieving a 100% decarbonized gas supply by 2040 and reducing total gas system costs by 44% compared to the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
• Under the CM scenario, the region requires EUR 11.3 billion by 2050 for renewable gas production and storage, with 88% of these costs attributed to Finland and Lithuania due to their larger gas markets.
• Decarbonization will require significant renewable electricity capacity for hydrogen and synthetic natural gas production; for example, in the REN-Hydrogen scenario, Lithuania would need 8.7 GW of onshore and 5.4 GW of offshore wind capacity.
• Biomethane is identified as the most economically produced gas by 2050, with an average regional cost of 55 EUR/MWh, while renewable hydrogen remains less attractive due to a higher average cost of 154 EUR/MWh.
• Existing LNG terminal capacities, specifically in Klaipeda, are projected to be sufficient for regional needs until 2044 and can be repurposed for synthetic methane and bio-LNG without conversion.
• The region's total gas demand is projected to decrease from 63 TWh in 2021 to 38 TWh in 2050, representing a 40% reduction driven by energy efficiency and direct electrification.

APA

Aeby, L., Lee, L. Y., Dedecca, J. G., van Nuffel, L., Keypour, J., Muthukumaran, G., & Tool, B. (2024). Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland). Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/

Chicago

Aeby, L., L. Y. Lee, J. G. Dedecca, L. van Nuffel, J. Keypour, G. Muthukumaran, and B. Tool. Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland). Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aeby |first1=L. |last2=Lee |first2=L. Y. |last3=Dedecca |first3=J. G. |last4=van Nuffel |first4=L. |last5=Keypour |first5=J. |last6=Muthukumaran |first6=G. |last7=Tool |first7=B. |title=Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland) |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=10 June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aeby2024gas, author = {Aeby, L. and Lee, L. Y. and Dedecca, J. G. and van Nuffel, L. and Keypour, J. and Muthukumaran, G. and Tool, B.}, title = {{Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland)}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }