Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland)

This working paper, based on a 2023 study by the Stockholm Environment Institute and others, evaluates four decarbonization scenarios for the gas sectors of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland. The analysis focuses on transitioning from fossil gas to renewable methane and hydrogen to enhance energy security and meet 2050 EU sustainability goals, projecting a regional gas demand reduction from 63 TWh in 2021 to 38 TWh by 2050.

• The study analyzed four scenarios for the regional gas market: Business-as-usual (BAU), Renewable methane (REN-Methane), Renewable hydrogen (REN-Hydrogen), and Cost minimal (CM). The CM scenario is identified as the most economically advantageous, achieving a 44% reduction in total gas system costs compared to BAU and generating between 20,189 and 21,268 additional jobs.
• By 2050, the different scenarios project varying levels of gas supply: the BAU scenario relies on LNG imports for approximately 51% (27 TWh) of demand; the REN-Methane scenario uses biogas, biomethane, and synthetic natural gas (SNG) for 69% (26 TWh); the REN-Hydrogen scenario shifts to renewable hydrogen for 78% (30 TWh) by 2041; and the CM scenario achieves 100% decarbonization by 2040 using biomethane (64% or 23 TWh) and renewable hydrogen (36% or 14 TWh).
• The transition to renewable gases requires significant wind power capacity by 2050. In the REN-Hydrogen scenario, the regional electricity demand reaches 66 TWh, requiring Estonia to deploy 1.2 GW onshore and 0.859 GW offshore wind; Latvia 1.8 GW onshore and 1.3 GW offshore; Lithuania 8.7 GW onshore and 5.4 GW offshore; and Finland 3.9 GW onshore and 3.6 GW offshore.
• Biomethane is the most economically produced gas by 2050 with a regional average cost of 55 EUR/MWh, with Latvia having the lowest costs at approximately 44 EUR/MWh because biowaste is the only feedstock used and has no associated cost. In contrast, renewable hydrogen is more expensive, with a regional average of 154 EUR/MWh, though costs are expected to drop by 64% between 2030 and 2050.
• The CM scenario requires a total investment of EUR 11.3 billion by 2050 for renewable gas production and storage, with 88% of these costs associated with Lithuania and Finland. Specific capacity targets in the CM scenario include Estonia (357 MW biomethane, 200 MW hydrogen), Latvia (363 MW biomethane, 242 MW hydrogen), Lithuania (1074 MW biomethane, 3783 MW hydrogen, 1031 MW SNG), and Finland (1497 MW biomethane, 2689 MW hydrogen).
• Existing LNG terminal capacities, specifically Klaipeda, are projected to be sufficient for regional needs until 2044. While terminals can import synthetic methane and bio-LNG without conversion, repurposing for hydrogen derivatives like green ammonia would require technical and safety upgrades because ammonia is toxic.

APA

Aeby, L., Lee, L. Y., Dedecca, J. G., van Nuffel, L., Keypour, J., Muthukumaran, G., & Tool, B. (2024). Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland). Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/

Chicago

Aeby, L., L. Y. Lee, J. G. Dedecca, L. van Nuffel, J. Keypour, G. Muthukumaran, and B. Tool. Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland). Stockholm Environment Institute, 2024. https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Aeby |first1=L. |last2=Lee |first2=L. Y. |last3=Dedecca |first3=J. G. |last4=van Nuffel |first4=L. |last5=Keypour |first5=J. |last6=Muthukumaran |first6=G. |last7=Tool |first7=B. |title=Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland) |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=10 June 2024 |url=https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{aeby2024gas, author = {Aeby, L. and Lee, L. Y. and Dedecca, J. G. and van Nuffel, L. and Keypour, J. and Muthukumaran, G. and Tool, B.}, title = {{Gas Decarbonisation Pathways for Estonia (3 Baltic states + Finland)}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2024}, month = jun, url = {https://www.sei.org/publications/gas-decarbonization-baltics-finland/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }