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The document assesses the transition to low-carbon transport in the SADC region, focusing on the synergy between e-mobility and the power sector. Using the South Africa TIMES (SATIM) model, it compares four scenarios: Fossil-Car, Fossil-Efficiency, Electric-Car, and Eco-Mobility. The analysis finds that while modal shifts (road-to-rail and transit-oriented development) significantly reduce energy demand, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is the primary lever for rapid GHG emission reductions. The paper highlights that a transition to EVs would eliminate the need for new crude-oil refinery capacity in South Africa but would increase electricity demand by approximately 20% by 2050. It also explores the role of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) for heavy corridor freight and the potential for a regional value chain leveraging the mineral resources of the DRC and Zambia.

The report argues that new natural gas developments in Appalachia are high-risk investments due to low domestic prices and the global transition toward low-carbon energy. Analysis of 216 prospective gas fields indicates that average 2020 prices for gas and oil do not support widespread expansion. The authors highlight that deep decarbonization consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely keep gas prices below the $3/Mbtu threshold required for average profitability, potentially rendering new fields and associated petrochemical infrastructure, such as ethane crackers, unprofitable.

The research introduces an interdisciplinary approach that uses 'transition narratives' as a bridge between socio-technical transition studies and integrated assessment modelling. By applying a multi-level perspective, the authors developed two contrasting narratives for the European Union's 80% greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2050: one driven by incumbent actors and large-scale innovation, and another driven by new entrants and alternative strategies. The study concludes that while both pathways meet the 2050 objective, both require a substantial departure from current known systems.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) faces a 'paradox of plenty,' where immense natural resources coexist with extreme poverty and poor human development indicators. On its current trajectory, the DRC is projected to remain a low-income country with stagnant per capita income and high poverty rates through 2050. Key constraints include endemic corruption, a massive infrastructure deficit in electricity and transport, and a high fertility rate that hinders the demographic dividend. The report models several intervention scenarios, finding that while agricultural improvements offer short-term poverty relief, long-term prosperity depends on structural economic transformation and improved governance. A combined comprehensive scenario suggests that concerted action across governance, infrastructure, human capital, and agriculture could reduce the extreme poverty rate to 9.6% by 2050.

The research develops a model to calculate the investment needs for nine Swedish cities to reach climate neutrality by 2030. Using five 'strategy mixes' and three emission forecasts, the study assesses the financial feasibility of these transitions. Preliminary results indicate that while targets are achievable and financially viable, they require significant shifts in food consumption and substantial investments from private citizens, governments, and industry. For example, in Malmö, total mitigation reductions could range from 17% to 51%, with annual per capita investments between 19,790 and 23,765 SEK.

The EU cement sector faces challenges in deep emission reductions due to chemical process emissions. The study evaluates two high-innovation scenarios: one dependent on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and another focused on novel cements and supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). Both pathways require CCS to reach near-zero emissions by 2050 and face limited roll-out potential before 2030 due to the need for piloting and demonstration. The report recommends developing a sector-level decarbonisation roadmap aligned with the European Green Deal, establishing R&D funding, and updating standards to enable rapid emission reductions after 2030.

The report analyzes pathways for decarbonizing India's transport sector, which is the country's fastest-growing source of carbon emissions. It explores two primary paradigm shifts: scaling up rail transport and the electrification of road transport. The analysis identifies policy-driven interventions—including urban planning, electrification, modal shifts to public transport, and alternative fuels—to determine their mitigation potential compared to a 'Current Policies' scenario. While the report reviews international policy examples to initiate transformation, it does not quantify the international financial support required for these transitions.

The USAID Paani Program developed a three-part system-scale planning approach for Nepal to optimize energy production while protecting freshwater resources. The project identified High Conservation Value Rivers (HCVR), conducted an Energy Options Assessment (EOA) using the SWITCH model to find least-cost power pathways, and utilized System Scale Planning (SSP) to visualize tradeoffs between economic and environmental goals. Findings indicate that significant river conservation can be achieved with minimal increases in system costs by diversifying the energy mix with wind, solar, and battery storage, and by strategically siting hydropower projects.

The report finds that while renewable energy investment is growing, continued funding for fossil fuel power plants and the presence of 'locked-in' emissions from existing assets keep the global power sector on a temperature trajectory exceeding 3.2°C. It highlights a significant gap between actual 2018 investment carbon intensities and the negative thresholds required by 2030 to achieve Paris alignment. The analysis identifies specific misalignments among major economies like China, India, and Japan, and among financial actors such as commercial banks and export credit agencies. The document recommends halting new carbon-intensive investments, accelerating the retirement of existing fossil fuel plants, and harmonizing climate risk reporting.

The report uses System Dynamics modelling to forecast how circular economy (CE) interventions—such as extending product lifetimes and increasing recycling rates—affect jobs in Finland. It analyzes consumer electronics, textiles, food, mining, forestry, and buildings. The findings indicate that while some sectors like electronics and forestry may see net job gains due to the high labor intensity of recycling and refurbishment, others like textiles and food are projected to experience net job losses as reduced consumption lowers demand for primary production and retail.

The report analyzes Algeria's development pathway to 2040, highlighting a reliance on hydrocarbons, poor governance, and an unsustainable subsidy system. It projects a modest GDP growth rate of 1.8% under current policies but proposes an 'Algerian Dream' scenario involving democratic reform, economic diversification, and investment in the knowledge economy to achieve higher growth and inclusivity.

The report analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic affects global emission pathways toward Paris Agreement goals, estimating a 2020 CO2 reduction of 4% to 8% depending on lockdown duration. It projects a potential 2030 emission reduction of 2.5 to 4.5 GtCO2e relative to pre-pandemic projections, though this could be offset by a rebound to fossil fuels. Additionally, it introduces a classification framework for recovery measures, finding that 31% of Germany's June 2020 stimulus package consists of 'green' measures.

The document argues that meaningful global greenhouse gas emissions reductions are increasingly unlikely due to political instability and the COVID-19 pandemic. It recommends that South Africa shift its focus from the UNFCCC process toward strengthening domestic and regional adaptive capacity and resilience. The authors suggest leveraging South Africa's soft power and its role as AU chair to champion a 'green' recovery agenda at the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the EU–AU Summit, while urging the country to move away from its dependence on the Mineral-Energy Complex.

The report finds that COVID-19 is set to undo several years of development progress in Africa, with the economy projected to be between US$335 billion and US$617 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic forecasts. It highlights a severe risk of a debt crisis, significant reductions in health expenditure, and a widening gap in achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, particularly regarding extreme poverty. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct mortality, the report warns that indirect deaths from reduced health spending and disrupted care for diseases like HIV and malaria could be substantial. Recommendations include accelerating digitisation, improving water and sanitation (WaSH) infrastructure, and securing comprehensive debt relief.

The document examines Africa's response to COVID-19, highlighting the tension between implementing lockdowns to protect fragile health systems and the resulting economic risks due to high informality and poverty. It notes that while some countries adopted rapid mitigation strategies and leveraged experience from previous epidemics, systemic gaps in water access and health funding leave the continent vulnerable as infection rates accelerate.

The document outlines the initial spread of COVID-19 across Africa, noting that while mortality rates were initially lower than in other regions due to a youthful population, community transmission accelerated rapidly by mid-2020. It highlights the uneven impact across countries, the heavy socio-economic toll of containment measures, and the global scale of the crisis, which the IMF described as the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression.

The document examines how COVID-19 transitioned from a health crisis to a systemic human development crisis in Africa, highlighting the severe economic contraction faced by energy exporters and tourism-dependent nations. It notes that while developed economies initially bore a higher infection burden, the economic downturn is universal, potentially triggering debt crises and defaults. However, the report suggests the pandemic could accelerate digitisation and a transition toward a sustainable economy powered by renewable energy.

The report concludes that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to reverse recent progress in poverty reduction and hinder the achievement of the 2030 SDGs and Agenda 2063. While health impacts are expected to worsen, the primary driver of suffering in Africa is projected to be the economic consequences of the pandemic. To prevent a 'lost decade', the author recommends strengthening health systems, improving water and sanitation, leveraging digital technologies for economic transformation, and securing substantial debt relief.

The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa, concluding that the pandemic will cause a severe development setback. It forecasts that Africa's economy will be between US$349 billion and US$643 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic projections. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct COVID-19 mortality, the report warns that reduced health expenditure and high debt levels could lead to significant indirect deaths and a systemic human development crisis. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased domestic health spending, and accelerated digitisation to build long-term resilience.

The report analyses Tunisia's socio-economic challenges, including stagnant growth, high youth unemployment, and a large informal sector, while projecting development pathways to 2040. It highlights the country's strong human capital but warns that poor governance and an opaque economic system hinder progress. The analysis compares a 'Current Path' with three scenarios: 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality', concluding that substantive governance reform is essential for any successful transition.