Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections

This report by the NewClimate Institute examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery efforts influence global greenhouse gas emission projections through 2030. It evaluates various 'what-if' scenarios based on IMF, IEA, and Global Carbon Project data, and introduces a classification framework ('green', 'grey', and 'colourless') to analyze the environmental impact of government stimulus packages, applying this framework to a case study of Germany.

• Ex-post calculations for the longer term suggest that global emissions in 2030 could be reduced by 2.5 to 4.5 GtCO2e (a 4% to 7% decrease) compared to pre-pandemic current policy projections, depending on whether the IMF's Baseline or Longer and New Outbreak scenario occurs. However, if there is a rebound to fossil fuels and lower decarbonisation rates, the 2030 reduction in the Longer and New Outbreak scenario could shrink to 3.0 GtCO2e, and the Baseline scenario could result in an increase of 0.5 GtCO2e.
• The median estimate for global CO2 emission reductions in 2020 relative to 2019 is 8% if lockdowns continue worldwide until the end of the year, or 4% to 5% if lockdowns are shorter and recovery is faster in North America and Europe during the second half of 2020. Because the 2020 drop is not caused by structural changes, the pandemic is expected to have little impact on 2030 GHG emission estimates for least-cost pathways aligned with Paris Agreement goals.
• The report proposes a classification system to evaluate the 'greenness' of fiscal stimulus packages by categorizing measures as 'green', 'grey', or 'colourless'. A pilot assessment of Germany's €130 billion stimulus package from 3 June 2020 found that 'green' measures make up about 31% of the package, while approximately 21% align with the IEA's Sustainable Recovery Plan. The package contained no unambiguously 'grey' measures.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2020). Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections. 2020. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections |date=4 September 2020 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2020exploring, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }