Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections

The report analyzes how the COVID-19 pandemic affects global emission pathways toward Paris Agreement goals, estimating a 2020 CO2 reduction of 4% to 8% depending on lockdown duration. It projects a potential 2030 emission reduction of 2.5 to 4.5 GtCO2e relative to pre-pandemic projections, though this could be offset by a rebound to fossil fuels. Additionally, it introduces a classification framework for recovery measures, finding that 31% of Germany's June 2020 stimulus package consists of 'green' measures.

• Global CO2 emission reductions in 2020 compared to 2019 are estimated at 8% if lockdowns continue worldwide through the end of the year, or 4% to 5% if lockdowns are shorter and recovery is faster in North America and Europe.
• Ex-post calculations suggest a global emission reduction in 2030 of 2.5 to 4.5 GtCO2e (4% to 7%) compared to pre-COVID current policy projections, based on IMF GDP projections and modeled decarbonisation rates.
• The projected 2030 emission reductions could be diminished or reversed if there is a rebound to fossil fuels and lower decarbonisation rates; in the Baseline scenario, emissions could increase by 0.5 GtCO2e instead of decreasing by 2.5 GtCO2e.
• The 2020 drop in emissions is not attributed to structural changes and is therefore expected to have little effect on the 2030 GHG emission levels required for a least-cost pathway aligned with Paris Agreement goals.
• A pilot assessment of Germany's €130 billion fiscal stimulus package from 3 June 2020 indicates that 'green' recovery measures make up about 31% of the stimulus, with 21% aligning with the IEA's Sustainable Recovery Plan.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2020). Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections. 2020. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections |date=4 September 2020 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2020exploring, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{Exploring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Emission Projections}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2020}, month = sep, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/exploring-the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-global-emission-projections}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }