Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the systemic human development crisis caused by COVID-19 in Africa as of July 2020. It examines the tension between economic mitigation and health risks, the specific vulnerabilities of energy-exporting nations, the potential for digital and green energy leapfrogging, and the risk of a debt crisis compounded by falling tax revenues and remittances.

• Initial infection and fatality burdens were higher in states with more developed economies and greater global trade and tourism exposure, such as Algeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt, compared to countries like Sierra Leone and Malawi, which rely more on subsistence farming. However, this trend is expected to shift as community transmission increases.
• The pandemic has caused a systemic human development crisis across Africa, with economic recovery expected to be gradual due to collapsed tax revenues, reduced employment, and lower household incomes. The tourism sector is particularly hard hit, with the World Tourism Organization estimating a decline in arrivals of 58% to 78% for 2020.
• Energy-exporting nations, specifically Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria, have been severely affected by the economic downturn and the collapse of oil prices due to reduced global demand. Additionally, Egypt has suffered from reduced global trade and lower income from the Suez Canal.
• High levels of existing indebtedness in many African countries, combined with the COVID-19 growth collapse, may trigger a debt crisis or defaults. This reduced borrowing capacity limits the ability of countries to mitigate the pandemic, which is likely to increase death tolls.
• The pandemic may provide opportunities for Africa to accelerate its transition to a digital economy and a more sustainable economy powered by renewable energy, potentially facilitating economic diversification as businesses adopt new work practices.
• Remittances, a critical financing source for vulnerable households, are expected to decline sharply. World Bank forecasts for 2020 indicate a decline of 23.1% in sub-Saharan Africa and 19.6% in North Africa and the Middle East.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }