Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

The document examines how COVID-19 transitioned from a health crisis to a systemic human development crisis in Africa, highlighting the severe economic contraction faced by energy exporters and tourism-dependent nations. It notes that while developed economies initially bore a higher infection burden, the economic downturn is universal, potentially triggering debt crises and defaults. However, the report suggests the pandemic could accelerate digitisation and a transition toward a sustainable economy powered by renewable energy.

• Initial COVID-19 infection and fatality burdens were higher in more developed African economies with greater global trade and tourism exposure, such as Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, and Algeria, compared to subsistence-based economies like Malawi and Sierra Leone.
• The pandemic caused a systemic human development crisis across Africa, with severe economic impacts on large energy exporters like Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria, as well as Egypt due to reduced Suez Canal income and global trade.
• Economic recovery is expected to be gradual and hindered by collapsing tax revenues, reduced employment, and a significant decline in tourism, with the World Tourism Organization estimating a 58% to 78% drop in arrivals for 2020.
• High existing debt levels combined with the pandemic-induced growth collapse may lead to a debt crisis or defaults in some African countries, which in turn reduces their capacity to mitigate the pandemic and may increase mortality.
• The pandemic may serve as a catalyst for positive structural changes, including accelerated technology adoption, a shift toward a digital economy, and a transition to a sustainable economy based on renewable energy.
• Remittances to Africa are expected to decline sharply, with the World Bank forecasting a 23.1% drop in sub-Saharan Africa and a 19.6% drop in North Africa and the Middle East for 2020.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=06-consequences}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }