Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

The document examines Africa's response to COVID-19, highlighting the tension between implementing lockdowns to protect fragile health systems and the resulting economic risks due to high informality and poverty. It notes that while some countries adopted rapid mitigation strategies and leveraged experience from previous epidemics, systemic gaps in water access and health funding leave the continent vulnerable as infection rates accelerate.

• Africa faces significant systemic vulnerabilities to COVID-19, including high levels of undernourishment, poorly funded health systems, and limited access to safe water. In 2019, the average population with improved water access in Africa was 78%, whereas the global average was 96%.
• African nations have adopted diverse mitigation strategies to flatten the infection curve, ranging from comprehensive lockdowns and contact tracing in countries like South Africa and Uganda, to partial lockdowns in Ghana, and targeted mobile responses in Senegal.
• The implementation of comprehensive interventions, such as those used in New Zealand, is difficult in Africa due to low state capacity, widespread poverty, high informality, and a lack of social safety nets. While flattening the curve may prevent health system collapse, it may cause severe impacts on livelihoods and the economy.
• African health systems are expected to struggle as infection rates accelerate in the latter half of 2020 because they have fewer physicians, hospital beds, and intensive care facilities per million people than other global regions.
• The continent has drawn on experience from previous epidemics to manage COVID-19, with 41 African countries having faced at least one epidemic, including Ebola in West Africa and the DR Congo, and Lassa fever in Nigeria.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }