Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)

This special report analyzes the initial response to COVID-19 in Africa, examining the vulnerabilities of the continent's health systems, the various mitigation strategies adopted by different nations, and the challenges of implementing lockdowns in contexts of high poverty and informality.

• Africa faced significant vulnerabilities to COVID-19 due to crowded informal urban settlements, poorly funded health systems, and high rates of undernourishment and underlying conditions like HIV/Aids and tuberculosis. Water access was a critical gap, with an average of 78% of the population having improved access in 2019, compared to a global average of 96%.
• African nations employed diverse mitigation strategies to flatten the infection curve and prepare health systems. While some countries like Uganda and South Africa created expert panels, others like Ghana used partial lockdowns with contact tracing. Rwanda focused on disinfecting food markets and transport corridors, and Senegal utilized mobile teams for targeted responses.
• The implementation of comprehensive interventions, such as those used in New Zealand, is hindered in Africa by low state capacity, widespread poverty, high informality, and a lack of social safety nets. Consequently, while flattening the curve may prevent health system collapse, it may cause severe economic and livelihood impacts.
• African health systems are expected to struggle as infection rates accelerate in the latter half of 2020 due to having fewer physicians, hospital beds, and intensive care facilities per million people than other global regions. Sub-Saharan Africa's average health expenditure is approximately 2.6% of GDP.
• The continent's response benefited from experience with previous epidemics, as 41 African countries have faced at least one epidemic, including Ebola in West Africa (2014-16) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (2018-2020), as well as Lassa fever in Nigeria.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020). Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020) |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 (July 2020)}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=03-lockdown}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }