The rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The report analyses Tunisia's socio-economic challenges, including stagnant growth, high youth unemployment, and a large informal sector, while projecting development pathways to 2040. It highlights the country's strong human capital but warns that poor governance and an opaque economic system hinder progress. The analysis compares a 'Current Path' with three scenarios: 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality', concluding that substantive governance reform is essential for any successful transition.

• Tunisia's economic growth is stagnant due to poor governance, low investment, and a large, low-productivity informal sector that forces many educated citizens into shadow economy activities.
• The country faces a significant demographic shift, with the total fertility rate projected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 by 2022, leading to a rapidly ageing population and increased health costs for non-communicable diseases by 2040.
• Tunisia is highly vulnerable to international food price shocks due to a heavy dependence on imported foodstuffs, which exceeded 55% of consumption in 2019.
• Despite high educational attainment, there is a disconnect between the education system and the job market, with unemployment rates for graduates and women hovering around 30% and 25% respectively.
• Tunisia's energy sector is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with 97% of electricity generation coming from these sources, and the country is projected to miss its 2030 renewable energy target of 30% until 2040.
• Climate change poses severe risks to Tunisia, including sea-level rise affecting 84% of the population living along the coast, and projected temperature increases of 1.9–3.8°C by 2050.
• Government subsidies, particularly in energy, are inefficient and disproportionately benefit the wealthy, with the richest 20% of Tunisians consuming 28% of all subsidies.
• Scenario modelling indicates that improving governance indicators is the most powerful driver of economic growth across all proposed pathways, with the 'Going for Growth' scenario potentially increasing GDP by 27% by 2040 relative to the Current Path.

APA

Kwasi, S., Cilliers, J., & Welborn, L. (2020). The rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-4-1.pdf

Chicago

Kwasi, Stellah, Jakkie Cilliers, and Lily Welborn. The rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-4-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kwasi |first1=Stellah |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Welborn |first3=Lily |title=The rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-4-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kwasi2020rebirth, author = {Kwasi, Stellah and Cilliers, Jakkie and Welborn, Lily}, title = {{The rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/nar-4-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }