Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030

This conclusion section of a report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa through 2030, focusing on income, debt, poverty, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

• The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to reverse significant progress made in poverty reduction, thereby hindering the achievement of Agenda 2063 and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
• While health conditions were expected to worsen before improving, the primary cause of suffering in Africa is predicted to be the economic consequences of the pandemic rather than high mortality rates.
• To prevent a 'lost decade' similar to the 1980s, the report recommends that policymakers implement strategies to boost long-term growth and mitigate short-term impacts, including strengthening national health systems, improving water and sanitation access, utilizing digital technologies for economic transformation, ensuring good governance, and securing substantial debt relief.
• The report acknowledges limitations in its scope, noting it did not address the potential food security crisis—which the World Bank suggests could result from a 2.6% to 7% contraction in agricultural production and lower food imports—nor did it fully analyze expected reductions in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as predicted by the UN Conference on Trade and Development.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=08-conclusion

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=08-conclusion.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=08-conclusion |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=08-conclusion}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }