SADC e-Mobility Outlook: Accelerating Low Carbon Transport Futures

The document assesses the transition to low-carbon transport in the SADC region, focusing on the synergy between e-mobility and the power sector. Using the South Africa TIMES (SATIM) model, it compares four scenarios: Fossil-Car, Fossil-Efficiency, Electric-Car, and Eco-Mobility. The analysis finds that while modal shifts (road-to-rail and transit-oriented development) significantly reduce energy demand, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is the primary lever for rapid GHG emission reductions. The paper highlights that a transition to EVs would eliminate the need for new crude-oil refinery capacity in South Africa but would increase electricity demand by approximately 20% by 2050. It also explores the role of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) for heavy corridor freight and the potential for a regional value chain leveraging the mineral resources of the DRC and Zambia.

• In 2014, the transport sector was responsible for 17% of the estimated 567 Mt of CO2 attributed to fuel combustion by SADC member states, with road transport being the primary contributor.
• The 'Eco-Mobility' scenario, combining EV adoption and modal shifts (including a 70% rail share for corridor freight and 10% reduction in motorised travel via Transit Oriented Development), results in the lowest energy demand of 508 PJ and emissions of 9 MtCO2eq by 2050.
• Transitioning to an electrified vehicle fleet in South Africa would increase electricity demand by approximately 20% (95 TWh) by 2050, requiring an additional 41 GW to 45 GW of power capacity depending on the scenario.
• Adopting EV scenarios would remove the need for new domestic crude-oil refinery capacity in South Africa, as liquid fuel demand for transport would progressively decline.
• Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCEVs) are identified as a cost-optimal choice for heavy vehicles in corridor freight transport between 2030 and 2050.
• The transition to e-mobility offers an opportunity to create a regional value chain in SADC, utilizing South Africa's manufacturing and platinum, and the DRC and Zambia's cobalt and copper resources.
• Angola is identified as the SADC member state most at risk from the transition to electric vehicles due to its heavy economic dependence on petroleum product exports, which accounted for 90% of its export revenue in 2018.

APA

AHJUM, F. (2021). SADC e-Mobility Outlook: Accelerating Low Carbon Transport Futures. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Occasional-Paper-319-ahjum.pdf

Chicago

AHJUM, FADIEL. SADC e-Mobility Outlook: Accelerating Low Carbon Transport Futures. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2021. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Occasional-Paper-319-ahjum.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=AHJUM |first1=FADIEL |title=SADC e-Mobility Outlook: Accelerating Low Carbon Transport Futures |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=March 2021 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Occasional-Paper-319-ahjum.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ahjum2021sadc, author = {AHJUM, FADIEL}, title = {{SADC e-Mobility Outlook: Accelerating Low Carbon Transport Futures}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2021}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Occasional-Paper-319-ahjum.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }