How will COVID-19 impact South Africa’s climate change diplomacy?

The document argues that meaningful global greenhouse gas emissions reductions are increasingly unlikely due to political instability and the COVID-19 pandemic. It recommends that South Africa shift its focus from the UNFCCC process toward strengthening domestic and regional adaptive capacity and resilience. The authors suggest leveraging South Africa's soft power and its role as AU chair to champion a 'green' recovery agenda at the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the EU–AU Summit, while urging the country to move away from its dependence on the Mineral-Energy Complex.

• Global political shifts and the COVID-19 pandemic have made achieving significant reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions appear increasingly improbable, necessitating a shift in South Africa's priority toward domestic and regional adaptive capacity and resilience.
• South Africa's historical international position has emphasized that developed nations are responsible for climate change and should provide financial, technical, and capacity-building support to developing nations, which are at higher risk.
• South Africa faces a unique challenge as it is both a high emitter and a country at high risk from climate impacts, complicated by a domestic dependence on the Mineral-Energy Complex and coal.
• The BASIC bloc (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) has been South Africa's most critical alliance for preventing pressure on high-emitting developing countries to reduce emissions, but it is now vulnerable due to tensions between China and India and the election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.
• The authors propose three scenarios for the international system: the maintenance of a rules-based system, an increasingly uncertain system where US dominance is contested, or a complete collapse into competing regional spheres of influence between the US and China.
• South Africa can use President Cyril Ramaphosa's role as AU chair to advocate for a 'green' recovery agenda within COVID-19 recovery packages, specifically targeting the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the EU–AU Summit.
• South Africa should lead efforts to increase resilience within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), as its own protection against climate change is tied to the stability of its neighbors.

APA

Davies, E., Fakir, S., & Nagiah, M. (2020). How will COVID-19 impact South Africa’s climate change diplomacy? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/research/how-will-covid-19-impact-south-africas-climate-change-diplomacy/

Chicago

Davies, Ellen, Saliem Fakir, and Melisha Nagiah. How will COVID-19 impact South Africa’s climate change diplomacy? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2020. https://saiia.org.za/research/how-will-covid-19-impact-south-africas-climate-change-diplomacy/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Davies |first1=Ellen |last2=Fakir |first2=Saliem |last3=Nagiah |first3=Melisha |title=How will COVID-19 impact South Africa’s climate change diplomacy? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=26 August 2020 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/how-will-covid-19-impact-south-africas-climate-change-diplomacy/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{davies2020how, author = {Davies, Ellen and Fakir, Saliem and Nagiah, Melisha}, title = {{How will COVID-19 impact South Africa’s climate change diplomacy?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2020}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/how-will-covid-19-impact-south-africas-climate-change-diplomacy/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }