Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030

This report provides a situational analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic's arrival and early impact in Africa as of July 2020, noting the acceleration of community transmission and the severe social and economic costs of containment measures.

• COVID-19 first appeared in Africa on 14 February 2020 in Egypt, and by May 2020, the disease had spread to every country on the continent. The virus primarily entered capital cities via international flights from Europe before spreading through community transmission.
• While Africa's mortality rates were initially lower than other regions, likely due to a more youthful population, the rate of infection accelerated rapidly. It took 98 days to reach 100,000 cases, but only 18 days for that number to double.
• The impact of the pandemic has been uneven across the continent. South Africa recorded the highest number of cases, while Egypt recorded the most deaths. Other countries significantly affected include Ghana, Nigeria, Morocco, and Algeria.
• Containment strategies including lockdowns, market closures, and travel restrictions helped limit infection rates but caused significant economic and social damage. In contrast, Tanzania implemented limited measures and ceased updating public pandemic information in April 2020.
• The global financial response to the pandemic exceeded US$8 trillion, a sum that is several times larger than the combined GDP of Africa.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }