Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030

The document outlines the initial spread of COVID-19 across Africa, noting that while mortality rates were initially lower than in other regions due to a youthful population, community transmission accelerated rapidly by mid-2020. It highlights the uneven impact across countries, the heavy socio-economic toll of containment measures, and the global scale of the crisis, which the IMF described as the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression.

• COVID-19 spread to every African country within two months of being declared a global pandemic, primarily entering through international flights into capital cities from Europe.
• Mortality rates in Africa were significantly lower than in other regions, a trend generally attributed to the continent's more youthful population.
• The pandemic's impact has been uneven across the continent; South Africa recorded the highest number of cases, while Egypt saw the most deaths. Other highly affected nations include Algeria, Morocco, Nigeria, and Ghana.
• The rate of infection accelerated quickly, with the number of cases doubling from 100,000 to 200,000 in just 18 days.
• Containment strategies such as lockdowns, market closures, and travel restrictions helped limit infection rates but resulted in significant social and economic costs.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=July 2020 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=other/covid&topic=02-scene}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }