Impact of COVID-19 in Africa

The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa, concluding that the pandemic will cause a severe development setback. It forecasts that Africa's economy will be between US$349 billion and US$643 billion smaller by 2030 compared to pre-pandemic projections. While Africa's youthful population may mitigate direct COVID-19 mortality, the report warns that reduced health expenditure and high debt levels could lead to significant indirect deaths and a systemic human development crisis. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased domestic health spending, and accelerated digitisation to build long-term resilience.

• COVID-19 is projected to significantly reduce Africa's economic size by 2030, with the total loss estimated between US$349 billion and US$643 billion compared to pre-pandemic forecasts.
• The recovery of GDP per capita to 2019 levels varies by scenario: a best-case (V-shaped) recovery is expected by 2024, while a worst-case (L-shaped) recovery would not occur until 2030.
• Extreme poverty is expected to rise across all scenarios; 14 million additional Africans were projected to be extremely poor in 2020, with the number increasing to between 38 and 70 million more people by 2030.
• While Africa's youthful population (median age below 20) provides a demographic advantage against COVID-19 mortality, this is undermined by high comorbidity rates and low health system capacity.
• The pandemic is forecast to cause a cumulative reduction in health expenditure between US$141 billion (V scenario) and US$243 billion (L scenario) by 2030, potentially leading to more deaths from hunger and reduced healthcare than from the virus itself.
• Africa's ability to respond to the pandemic is severely constrained by low tax-to-GDP ratios and a high debt burden, with the collapse in growth likely to trigger a debt crisis or defaults.
• The pandemic is expected to hinder progress toward 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically increasing the undernourished population and leaving infant mortality three times higher than the UN target.
• Poor access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure—with Africa investing only 0.5% of GDP in these areas—impedes effective COVID-19 countermeasures like handwashing.
• The report identifies Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Niger, and Tanzania as the countries most negatively affected across all three scenarios.

APA

Cilliers, J., Oosthuizen, M., Kwasi, S., Alexander, K., Pooe, T., Yeboua, K., & Moyer, J. D. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar24v2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, Marius Oosthuizen, Stellah Kwasi, Kelly Alexander, TK Pooe, Kouassi Yeboua, and Jonathan D Moyer. Impact of COVID-19 in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar24v2.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020impact, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Oosthuizen, Marius and Kwasi, Stellah and Alexander, Kelly and Pooe, TK and Yeboua, Kouassi and Moyer, Jonathan D}, title = {{Impact of COVID-19 in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jul, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar24v2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }