Circular Jobs in Finland: Modelling employment impacts resulting from circular economy interventions

This technical report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) uses System Dynamics (SD) modelling to forecast the employment impacts of circular economy (CE) interventions in Finland across six key areas: electronics, textiles, food, mining, forestry, and buildings. The study compares a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with two levels of CE ambition (CE1 and CE2) from 2020 to 2040, finding that while some sectors like electronics and forestry see net job gains due to the labour intensity of recycling and refurbishment, others like food and textiles face net losses due to reduced primary production and retail demand.

• The electronics sector is projected to experience positive net employment impacts because the labour intensity of collection, recycling, and refurbishing outweighs the loss of jobs in domestic production and retail. By 2040, the CE scenario is expected to generate approximately 580 additional jobs.
• The textile sector is forecast to see a net reduction in jobs because increased product lifetimes reduce consumption, production, and retail demand. By 2040, the CE scenario is projected to provide 3,730 jobs, representing a net loss of approximately 670 supply chain jobs, 20 recycling jobs, and 0.3 landfilling and incineration jobs.
• In the food sector, CE interventions to reduce food waste are expected to lead to net job losses. By 2040, total employment is projected to decrease by 2,410 jobs (-3.6%), primarily driven by a loss of 2,330 supply chain jobs due to lower food purchases and production.
• The mining sector is expected to see a net gain of 90 jobs by 2040 under CE interventions. This is driven by increased scrap metal collection and reuse, which generates 150 additional recycling and refurbishing jobs, offsetting a reduction of 60 upstream employment jobs.
• The forestry sector is forecast to have net positive job impacts, with a projected net increase of 330 jobs. This is attributed to the high labour intensity of recycling and refurbishing activities, which are expected to generate 650 additional jobs by 2040, offsetting losses in logging and waste management.
• The buildings sector is projected to see a net increase in employment due to the higher labour intensity associated with sustainable buildings and retrofits. In the CE2 scenario (new construction plus retrofits), total employment is forecast to increase by 5,250 jobs relative to BAU by 2040.
• The modelling approach utilizes System Dynamics (SD) based on stocks and flows, applying employment multipliers to physical stocks and flows of products and materials rather than economic value. The simulations run from 2000 to 2040, with CE interventions introduced from 2020.
• A significant limitation of the model is the lack of economic feedback loops, such as price changes, and the absence of intersectoral or international trade dynamics. Additionally, national-level data on labour intensity for materials management is largely missing for several products and sectors.

APA

International Institute for Sustainable Development (n.d.). Circular Jobs in Finland: Modelling employment impacts resulting from circular economy interventions. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-12/circular-jobs-finland.pdf

Chicago

International Institute for Sustainable Development. Circular Jobs in Finland: Modelling employment impacts resulting from circular economy interventions. n.d. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-12/circular-jobs-finland.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=International Institute for Sustainable Development |title=Circular Jobs in Finland: Modelling employment impacts resulting from circular economy interventions |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-12/circular-jobs-finland.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{internationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopmentndcircular, author = {{International Institute for Sustainable Development}}, title = {{Circular Jobs in Finland: Modelling employment impacts resulting from circular economy interventions}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2020-12/circular-jobs-finland.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }