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Economic Analysis of a U.S. National Extended Producer Responsibility Framework
The report models a hypothetical national EPR framework in the U.S. to evaluate the economic benefits of harmonization over fragmented state-level policies. Key findings indicate that such a framework could reduce municipal waste management costs by 49%–53%, generate $111 billion in economic value added over 10 years, and significantly lower producer compliance costs. The analysis also highlights job creation in recycling infrastructure and innovation, particularly in the food and beverage sector, and examines the potential for improved domestic rPET markets and rural recycling access.
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Document type: Report
Infographics: The Economic, Consumer Cost, and Pollution Impacts of Recent Federal Energy Policy Changes
The report uses Energy Policy Simulator modeling to analyze seven major federal policy shifts occurring between January 2025 and May 2026. The findings indicate that these changes will lead to increased energy costs, diminished public health outcomes, constraints on new power generation, and greater financial pressure on utilities and households through 2040.
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Document type: Report
Economic Consumer Cost and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes
The report models the effects of several federal policy reversals—including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the repeal of EPA greenhouse gas and tailpipe emissions standards, and the cancellation of the Solar for All grant program—predicting significant economic losses and increased consumer costs. Key findings include a projected $650 billion increase in household energy payments, a cumulative GDP loss of $2.3 trillion, and the loss of 820,000 jobs per year on average over the next decade. The analysis also forecasts a 26 percent increase in gasoline prices by 2040 and $43 billion in additional healthcare costs due to worsening air pollution. To mitigate these impacts, the report suggests state-level actions such as accelerating wind and solar procurement, removing permitting barriers, and supporting electric transportation and building efficiency.
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Document type: Report
The Economic, Consumer Cost, and Pollution Impacts of Recent Federal Energy Policy Changes
The analysis finds that recent federal policy shifts—including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and the repeal of various EPA standards—will lead to higher energy costs for households, significant GDP and job losses, and increased healthcare spending due to worsening air pollution. While a temporary boom in renewables is expected due to safe-harbor tax credit rules through 2030, the report forecasts a sharp contraction in clean energy capacity and a continued reliance on coal power after 2031.
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Document type: Report
Zambia Development Futures
The report projects that Zambia's GDP per capita will rise to US$5,467 by 2043 under the Current Path, though extreme poverty remains high at 67.3%. It identifies the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and 'leapfrogging' through renewable energy and ICT as the most impactful drivers for economic growth. While carbon emissions are forecast to peak in 2036 and then decline due to increased hydroelectricity, the report highlights critical vulnerabilities in food security, secondary education, and rural electricity access.
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Document type: Report
Namibia Development Futures
The report projects Namibia's economic and social future to 2043. While GDP per capita is expected to rise on the Current Path, the country faces persistent extreme poverty and food insecurity. Sectoral scenarios suggest that manufacturing, free trade, and agriculture offer the highest potential for economic growth, while a combined 'Agenda 2063' approach could significantly lift millions out of poverty, albeit at the cost of increased carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
NAMIBIA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES
The report projects that Namibia's GDP per capita will increase from US$10,419 in 2019 to US$23,261 by 2043 under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, a 152% increase. This scenario is expected to lift an additional 700,000 people out of poverty compared to the Current Path. While the service, manufacturing, and ICT sectors are identified as the largest GDP contributors, the report notes that this economic growth will lead to a 267% increase in carbon emissions from 2019 levels, reaching 4.4 million tons by 2043.
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Document type: Report
São Tomé and Príncipe Development Futures
The report projects that São Tomé and Príncipe will see population growth to 351,000 and a GDP per capita increase to US$4,910 by 2043 under its Current Path. While the nation remains a low carbon emitter, it faces systemic poverty and food insecurity. The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, integrating improvements in trade, manufacturing, and infrastructure, could significantly boost GDP per capita to US$7,082 and reduce the poverty rate to 39.8%, though this growth would increase carbon emissions to 130,000 tons.
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Document type: Report
Seychelles Development Futures
The report projects that Seychelles' GDP per capita will rise to US$33,409 by 2043 under the Current Path, though poverty remains high at 49.7%. While the economy is dominated by services and tourism, it faces food insecurity and an ageing population. Sectoral interventions in free trade and manufacturing offer the highest potential for GDP growth, while a 'Leapfrogging' scenario is the only one to reduce carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could increase GDP per capita to US$42,695 and reduce extreme poverty to 40.44%, albeit with a rise in carbon emissions to 241,380 tons.
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Document type: Report
LET THE SUN IN: CLEAN ENERGY IS THE CHEAPEST WAY TO MEET RISING DEMAND
The report argues that meeting U.S. electricity demand growth through 2030 with a clean energy portfolio is more affordable and reliable than a fossil-fuel-heavy approach. Modeling shows that a clean energy scenario could save consumers $5.1 billion annually by 2030 and significantly reduce risks associated with volatile fuel prices and extreme weather. The analysis emphasizes the role of solar, wind, battery storage, and demand-side flexibility in reducing system costs and carbon emissions while maintaining grid resilience.
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Document type: Report
LET THE SUN IN: CLEAN ENERGY IS THE CHEAPEST WAY TO MEET RISING DEMAND
The report compares two pathways for meeting U.S. electricity demand growth through 2030: one relying on fossil fuels and another on clean energy. It finds that a clean energy scenario reduces the incremental cost of meeting demand by $5.1 billion annually in 2030 and offers greater protection against fuel price volatility. To realize these savings, the authors recommend setting ambitious clean energy targets, updating electricity system planning with market-based assumptions, reducing permitting and interconnection barriers, implementing fuel cost sharing to manage risk, improving grid utilization through technologies like surplus interconnection and high-performance conductors, and harnessing demand-side resources such as virtual power plants and distributed energy technologies.
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Document type: Report
Food security in Europe is structurally exposed to energy markets through synthetic fertiliser
European agriculture's heavy reliance on synthetic nitrogen fertiliser, produced primarily from natural gas, creates a direct link between energy price shocks and food costs. Analysis of 17 EU member states from 2019-2024 reveals that EUR 16.4 billion was spent on fertiliser that was never taken up by crops, with EUR 6.1 billion spent on the embedded natural gas for that wasted input. Environmental damage from synthetic nitrogen application during this period is estimated at EUR 233.7 billion, dominated by water pollution. The report argues that reducing synthetic nitrogen use by up to 43% through precision management and legume integration could save farmers up to EUR 5.08 billion annually and significantly reduce gas dependency. Modeling shows that the post-Ukraine invasion energy crisis pushed wheat prices up by approximately 22%, establishing a lasting structural link between energy and food prices.
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Document type: Briefing
Liberia Development Futures
The report projects that Liberia's population will grow to 8.2 million by 2043, with GDP more than tripling to US$10.8 billion under the Current Path. While extreme poverty is expected to decline from 62.9% in 2019 to 31.9% by 2043, the absolute number of poor people will increase due to population growth. The analysis highlights that agricultural improvements, financial flows, and free trade offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could potentially lift an additional 2.2 million people out of poverty and double the economy's size to US$21.6 billion, albeit at the cost of higher carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
Mauritius Development Futures
The report projects that Mauritius will see steady GDP per capita growth and eliminate extreme poverty at the US$5.50 line by 2036 under its current path. While the country is a low emitter, carbon emissions are expected to rise from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 1.8 million tons by 2043. The 'Combined scenario'—integrating improvements in trade, manufacturing, and finance—could increase GDP per capita by 18.5% by 2043, though it would also result in an additional 0.3 million tons of carbon emissions compared to the baseline.
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Document type: Report
Benin Development Futures
The report forecasts Benin's development to 2043, predicting a population increase to 21.2 million and GDP growth to US$66.3 billion under the Current Path. While GDP per capita is expected to rise to US$4,685, absolute poverty is projected to increase to 11 million people. Sectoral scenarios suggest that Free Trade and Leapfrogging have the highest potential for economic growth, while the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario could double the economy to US$117.2 billion but would increase carbon emissions to 10.1 million tons.
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Document type: Report
Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario
The document analyzes the potential for the Central African Republic to significantly increase its GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty through an intersectoral policy push under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. While the scenario predicts substantial economic growth, particularly driven by agriculture and the service sector, it also forecasts a significant increase in carbon emissions due to the carbon-intensive nature of this growth.
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Document type: Research paper
Comment les gouvernements peuvent aider les ménages canadiens à s'électrifier avec de l'énergie propre
The briefing identifies household energy consumption as a source of nearly 20% of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions and proposes a transition from fossil fuels to electricity via electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and efficient appliances. Modeling suggests that by 2050, electricity should cover 73% to 91% of residential heating needs and over 96% of passenger vehicle kilometers. While electrification is generally cost-effective, regional differences exist; for example, natural gas remains cheaper than electric heating in the Prairies under current policies. The document emphasizes that energy efficiency—such as better building insulation—will reduce overall household energy consumption by 26% by 2050 despite population growth. To accelerate this, the author recommends government policies to lower initial costs for low-income households, mandate EV-readiness in multi-unit buildings, and double or triple clean electricity production to meet rising demand.
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Document type: Briefing
AFRICA GENDER FUTURES: THEMATIC FUTURES
The document outlines the persistent gender gap in Africa despite a comprehensive framework of international and regional policies. It highlights the economic costs of gender inequality and establishes the basis for forecasting the impact of reducing these gaps on the continent's development by 2043.
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Document type: Research paper
The Impact of the Education Scenario
The document analyzes the potential benefits of increased education spending in Africa by 2043. It finds that an 'Education scenario' would significantly boost GDP, reduce extreme poverty, and improve health outcomes, particularly in lower-income regions, while creating a 'human capital dividend' that accelerates economic growth.
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Document type: Research paper
Data Center Threats in Louisiana
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) warns that Louisiana's current regulatory trajectory could lead to up to $26 billion in electricity system costs and $3 billion in public health damages between 2026 and 2041 due to data center growth. The report highlights a systemic overreliance on fossil gas, which is projected to peak in 2038, and criticizes the Louisiana Public Service Commission (LPSC) for a lack of transparency and inadequate ratepayer protections, specifically citing the 'Lightning Amendment' and the Entergy/Meta project as examples of risky policy. UCS recommends reforming the Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) process, implementing standardized tariffs for data centers, and expanding wind, solar, and grid connectivity to reduce costs and emissions.
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Document type: Policy brief