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This report by Energy Innovation uses the Energy Policy Simulator to model the economic, public health, and energy cost impacts of federal policy changes enacted during the second Trump administration and the 119th Congress between 2026 and 2040. The analysis focuses on seven key policy shifts, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the repeal of EPA greenhouse gas and tailpipe emissions standards, and the cancellation of the $7 billion Solar for All grant program.

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development analyzes three potential trajectories for Canada's industrial carbon price between 2030 and 2040 to determine their impact on emissions and economic growth.

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for São Tomé and Príncipe, integrating 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social outcomes by 2043. The analysis compares this integrated approach against a 'Current Path' forecast, highlighting significant gains in GDP and poverty reduction, alongside an increase in carbon emissions.

This policy brief argues that India is uniquely positioned to lead in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production by utilizing its low-cost solar power and abundant agricultural residue. The authors propose the power-and-biomass-to-liquids (PBtL) pathway as a cost-competitive alternative to fossil jet fuel and other SAF technologies, offering benefits for energy security, air quality, and climate targets.

This research paper analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for North Africa, projecting economic growth, poverty reduction, and sectoral shifts by 2043. The scenario integrates 11 sectoral improvements to forecast a significant increase in GDP per capita and a reduction in extreme poverty, while noting an increase in carbon emissions.

This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the 'Combined Agenda 2063 scenario' for Benin, which integrates 11 sectoral scenarios to forecast economic and social development by 2043. The scenario predicts significant growth in GDP and a reduction in poverty compared to a 'Current Path' forecast, though it also projects a substantial increase in carbon emissions.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies compares Burundi's economic and social trajectory under a 'Current Path' versus a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The Combined scenario, which integrates eight sectoral pushes, projects significant growth in GDP, a reduction in extreme poverty, and structural economic transformation by 2043, albeit with an increase in carbon emissions.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the economic and social impacts of a 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario for Africa through 2050, comparing it against a 'Current Path' baseline.

This research paper introduces a thematic study on gender futures in Africa, analyzing the gap between the continent's extensive policy frameworks for gender equality and the persistent social and economic inequalities. It outlines the economic costs of these disparities and sets the stage for modeling the impact of reducing gender inequalities on development outcomes through 2043.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the projected economic and social impacts of an 'Education scenario' for Africa by 2043, comparing it to a 'Current Path' forecast. The document argues that increased investment in education acts as a multiplier for economic growth, reducing extreme poverty and improving health outcomes across the continent.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the potential economic impact of achieving full gender parity in Africa by 2043. It compares a 'Gender Equality scenario' against a 'Current Path' and a 'Gender scenario', focusing on GDP growth, per capita income, and poverty reduction across different African regions and income levels.

This research paper analyzes the tension between Nigeria's goal of achieving a USD1 trillion GDP by 2030 and its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It examines the institutional frameworks, the carbon intensity of industrial growth, and the financial gaps hindering a sustainable energy transition.

This report by Ember analyzes how electricity pricing structures in the European Union act as a barrier to the adoption of heat pumps. It argues that while heat pumps are significantly more efficient than gas boilers, high electricity prices—often inflated by policy-related levies—make them less cost-competitive. The report evaluates various policy interventions, such as removing levies or shifting them to gas, to lower the electricity-to-gas price ratio and accelerate the electrification of household heating to meet REPowerEU 2030 goals.

A briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics detailing how soy-driven deforestation in Brazil's Cerrado biome reduces regional rainfall and agricultural productivity, creating a paradox where individual farmer profits are outweighed by regional economic losses and global supply chain risks.

This policy brief by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) examines the socio-economic challenges of phasing out coal in Indonesia. It argues that while coal mine closures will lead to projected losses in output, income, and employment—particularly in East Kalimantan—these can be mitigated through strategic investment in high-potential green sectors, improved intergovernmental coordination, and the inclusion of informal workers, women, and youth in transition planning.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative and PUC-RIO analyzes the potential for carbon sequestration and economic growth in the Brazilian Amazon through forest restoration. It proposes the Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM) as a jurisdictional, results-based payment system to complement existing conservation funds, estimating that natural regeneration could capture up to 26 GtCO2 and mobilize significant international finance.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-RIO) introduces a new economic-based methodology to assess the additionality of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) carbon projects in the Brazilian Amazon. The study finds that 77% of the carbon traded in these projects is additional, meaning the forests would have been cleared without the projects' incentives. The report highlights regional variations in additionality and discusses the impact of land tenure issues and low agricultural productivity on project integrity, specifically citing the case of Portel, Pará.

This report by Energy Innovation analyzes the projected impacts of a proposed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule to rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding and repeal greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards for new vehicles. Using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), the analysis finds that such a repeal would lead to significant economic losses, increased household energy costs, and higher rates of premature death due to increased air pollution between 2026 and 2050.

A report by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA) detailing how deforestation in the Congo Basin disrupts a climate teleconnection that provides critical rainfall to West Africa, specifically threatening the global cocoa supply chain and increasing costs for European importers.

This briefing by RMI discusses the role of US states in industrial decarbonization, using a case study of Washington state to illustrate the potential for emissions reductions, the resulting increase in electricity demand, and the policy levers available to states to maintain industrial competitiveness.