Mauritius Development Futures

The report projects that Mauritius will see steady GDP per capita growth and eliminate extreme poverty at the US$5.50 line by 2036 under its current path. While the country is a low emitter, carbon emissions are expected to rise from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 1.8 million tons by 2043. The 'Combined scenario'—integrating improvements in trade, manufacturing, and finance—could increase GDP per capita by 18.5% by 2043, though it would also result in an additional 0.3 million tons of carbon emissions compared to the baseline.

• Under the Current Path forecast, Mauritius is expected to eliminate extreme poverty, measured at the US$5.50 poverty line, by 2036.
• Carbon emissions in Mauritius are projected to increase from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 1.8 million tons by 2043 under the Current Path forecast.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034, is the sectoral scenario with the highest potential to increase GDP per capita, adding US$1,010 by 2043 compared to the Current Path.
• The Combined scenario, which integrates 11 different sectoral improvements, is projected to increase GDP per capita by 18.5% (US$5,380) by 2043 relative to the Current Path.
• The Combined scenario would lead to an increase in carbon emissions of 0.3 million tons by 2043 compared to the Current Path forecast.
• Mauritius faces a demographic shift where the proportion of the population aged 65 and above is expected to increase by 10 percentage points by 2043 due to a low total fertility rate of 1.4 births per woman in 2019.
• The energy sector is characterized by a near total dependence on imports, which accounted for 97% of demand in 2019, with local production relying on hydro and other renewables, primarily bagasse.
• The Leapfrogging scenario projects that fixed broadband subscriptions will reach the saturation point of 50 per 100 people by 2027, which is eight years earlier than the Current Path forecast.
• The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario is projected to add US$270 million more to the economy by 2043 compared to the Current Path, while also increasing welfare transfers to unskilled workers to US$0.35 billion by 2043.

APA

McLachlan, D. T. (2026). Mauritius Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU

Chicago

McLachlan, Du Toit. Mauritius Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=McLachlan |first1=Du Toit |title=Mauritius Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=31 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mclachlan2026mauritius, author = {McLachlan, Du Toit}, title = {{Mauritius Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }