ISS African Futures

This report provides development forecasts for Mauritius up to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with various sectoral improvement scenarios. It analyzes demographics, economic growth, poverty levels, and carbon emissions, highlighting Mauritius's position as a high-income, stable island nation facing challenges such as an aging population, skilled labor shortages, and climate vulnerability.

• The Current Path forecast predicts a stagnation in population growth due to a low total fertility rate, which will lead to the population aged 65 and above increasing by 10 percentage points by 2043.
• Mauritius is projected to eliminate extreme poverty, measured at the US$5.50 poverty line, by 2036 under the Current Path forecast.
• GDP per capita is expected to rise steadily, increasing by US$6,725 by 2043 compared to 2019 levels, reaching a projected US$29,114.
• Carbon emissions are projected to increase from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 1.8 million tons by 2043 as the economy grows.
• The Free Trade scenario, based on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is the sectoral scenario with the highest potential impact on GDP per capita, projecting an increase of US$1,010 by 2043.
• The Manufacturing/Transfers scenario is projected to add US$270 million to the economy by 2043 and increase GDP per capita by US$930 compared to the Current Path.
• In the Leapfrogging scenario, fixed broadband subscriptions are projected to reach the saturation point of 50 per 100 people by 2027, which is eight years earlier than the Current Path forecast.
• The Combined scenario, integrating all 11 sectoral improvements, would result in an 18.5% increase in GDP per capita by 2043 and an economy 26% larger (an increase of US$7.1 billion) than the Current Path.
• The Combined scenario would significantly expand the services sector, adding US$6.7 billion more to the economy by 2043 than the Current Path forecast.
• Despite high government effectiveness, Mauritius faces challenges with corruption in its financial services sector and has been identified as a high-risk country for international financial systems.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=MU}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }